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The Geographic Logic
Iran is one of the world's great natural fortresses. The Zagros Mountains run 1,600 kilometres along the western border, with peaks exceeding 4,000 metres. To the north, the Alborz range seals the approach from the Caspian. To the east, the Dasht-e Lut and Dasht-e Kavir deserts make armoured approaches impossible at scale.
The interior plateau sits at an average elevation of 900 metres. Every approach requires fighting uphill through defended mountain passes. The last power to successfully conquer it was the Mongols in the thirteenth century. Iraq's eight-year war in the 1980s, launched against a post-revolutionary Iran in internal chaos, failed to break through the Zagros. Iran cannot be occupied by an external power.
The Current Situation
On 28 February, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury: joint strikes on Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah targeting nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and senior leadership. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed. The timing is striking — just 24 hours earlier, Oman's foreign minister announced a diplomatic breakthrough in indirect nuclear talks. The decision to strike despite apparent progress will define the information environment for weeks.
Iran has retaliated with ballistic missile strikes on US bases in Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain. IRGC broadcasts have declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. The Strait is 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest. Shipping lanes run partly through Iranian territorial waters. Iran does not need to close Hormuz conventionally — it needs only to make the risk premium prohibitive for commercial traffic.
The internal picture before the strikes was already volatile in ways Western coverage has largely understated. Protests beginning in late December spread to all 31 provinces, with a crackdown that killed tens of thousands. A second wave broke out in the final week of February. The conditions for revolution were assembling. But this is where the bombing campaign introduces a genuine strategic paradox: external threats have historically been one of the most reliable tools available to authoritarian governments facing domestic crisis. Whether Operation Epic Fury accelerates internal collapse or hands the regime's successor leadership exactly the rally narrative it needs is the central unknown of the next 72 hours.
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