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● Thursday
09 Jul 2026
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R.
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Today's signal: Europe's clean energy transition is colliding with market and policy friction—negative power prices doubled across Iberia, France, and Greece in H1 2026 while solar and wind buildout is deemed too slow for 2030 targets, exposing a mismatch between oversupply moments and structural deployment gaps. Meanwhile, cost realities are hardening around key technologies, as a new study shows cheap excess renewables won't make green hydrogen competitive until the mid-2030s and an EU inverter security ban threatens 14% of solar demand, forcing policymakers to defend mandates and rework auction rules like the UK's AR8.
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Industrial Policy
· EU · PV Magazine
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that an EU funding ban targeting solar inverters from China and other high-risk countries will affect 14% of EU solar demand and 12% of storage deployments to 2030. The restriction ties public support eligibility to supply-chain and cybersecurity criteria for grid-connected power electronics.
Industrial Policy · Grids Package
Source →
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RED III/IV
· EU · El Periódico de la Energía
New analysis warns that the pace of EU solar and wind additions is insufficient to hit the bloc's binding 2030 renewables goal. The gap reflects permitting bottlenecks, grid constraints and slowing investment despite record renewable generation shares.
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Hydrogen
· EU · Hydrogen Insight
A coalition of European trucking stakeholders has called on the Commission to maintain AFIR-based hydrogen refuelling infrastructure obligations amid pressure to soften deployment targets. The intervention comes as demand uncertainty threatens the business case for heavy-duty H2 corridors.
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Hydrogen
· EU · Hydrogen Insight
A new study finds that relying on curtailed or surplus renewable electricity to produce green hydrogen results in higher levelised costs than steadier operation until the mid-2030s, due to low electrolyser utilisation. The finding challenges a core assumption underpinning RFNBO temporal-correlation economics.
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Batteries
· EU · PV Magazine
Unigrid unveiled Na+Casa, a 9.25 kWh wall-mounted sodium-ion residential storage system using its NaCrO₂ cathode, claiming a 10,000-cycle lifespan, wide temperature tolerance and improved safety versus lithium-ion. Initial European deliveries have begun.
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RED III/IV
· EU · Recharge News
The UK government will keep administrative strike prices flat for its next CfD allocation round (AR8) and introduce a dedicated pot for fixed-bottom deepwater/hybrid offshore wind. The changes come as the eighth round prepares to open for bids.
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ETS
· EU · Montel News
Average negative-price hours doubled year-on-year across Iberia, France and Greece in the first half of 2026, with those markets recording 842 hours at or below zero in January–June. The surge reflects record renewable output outpacing flexibility and grid capacity.
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Market Snapshot
NH₃ Fossil ("Grey")
$688.25
/t Dlvd NWE
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NH₃ Low-Carbon ("Blue")
$738.92
/t Dlvd NWE
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NH₃ RFNBO ("Green")
$909.81
/t Dlvd NWE
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EUA (EU ETS)
€80.15
/tCO₂
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DE Baseload DA
€124.21
/MWh
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AI-assisted briefing for informational purposes only. Not investment, legal, or regulatory advice. No liability assumed. Views are the author's own.
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