March Madness: Men's Thrilling 32 preview
OK, so we've made it through the first round, and I've gotta be real with you: it's been really lacking in chaos. I mean, aside from Oakland knocking off Kentucky and Yale (Yale?!) stunning Auburn, things are looking mighty chalky.
Sure, James Madison and Grand Canyon are flying the 12-seed flag high, but JMU was nationally ranked earlier this season, and GCU is a top-30 team. We haven't had the kind of chaos that makes "March Madness"...you know, March Madness™.
So I'm hoping that this weekend gives us what the first two days didn't: chaos. upsets. you know, madness.
Here are your "Thrilling 32" previews, starting with the East Region. I'll be focusing on the men's tournament, simply because the women's first round will still be happening this weekend, and I'll be out of town.
East Region
UConn (1) vs Northwestern (9): Up until a few years ago, Northwestern was hapless at basketball. They were one of a few long-time D1 schools who'd missed out on the Dance. How bad were the Wildcats? This bad: from 1968 to 2017, they didn't even have a winning record in Big 10 conference play. They've turned things around under Chris Collins, and made the NCAAs for the first time in 2017. They're 3-0 in the first round, including this year, but haven't made the Sweet 16...yet. I don't think they do it this year, either. But don't be surprised if this game's closer than you think.
Prediction: UConn 87, Northwestern 79.
San Diego State (5) vs Yale (13): I gotta tell you, I didn't see Yale knocking off Auburn at all. That's a thing that happened! I suppose that they could beat San Diego State, which frankly wasn't that impressive against UAB. If the Bulldogs hang in against the Aztecs the way they did against Auburn, I think they have a solid shot at the upset. Let's call it, because a UConn-Yale matchup in the Sweet 16 would be hilarious.
Prediction: Yale 74, SDSu 70
Illinois (3) vs Duquesne (11): I really want to pick Duquesne here. The Dukes are playing in their first NCAA tournament since 1977. Their win over BYU was their first since 1969. Keith Dambrot's one of those coaching lifers who's wrapping things up at the same school his dad played for. It would be a quintessential March Madness story if they pulled the upset.
But Illinois is simply too good. Anything can happen in a one-and-gone situation, and maybe it does here! But my head's telling me the Illini manage to get over the first weekend hump for the first time since 2005.
Prediction: Illinois 76, Duquesne 61
Iowa State (2) vs Washington State (7): With Auburn gone, I think Iowa State's the most likely candidate to knock off UConn prior to the Final Four. They were so impressive in crushing #1 Houston in the Big 12 conference title game, and they kept that up against South Dakota State. I don't think Wazzu has what it takes to stop them.
Prediction: Iowa State 88, Washington State 70
South Region
Houston (1) vs Texas A&M (9): For so long this season, Houston was one of the two dominant teams in college men's basketball. But injuries have slowly caught up to them, and now, their depth's seriously depleted. Against Longwood, that didn't make a difference. Against Texas A&M, though, it really could. The Aggies were brilliant against Nebraska. I think Buzz Williams does enough of the right things to set up Texas A&M to take advantage, and the Aggies knock off the Cougars in a mild upset.
Prediction: Texas A&M 94, Houston 88
Duke (4) vs James Madison (12): JMU is one of those teams you don't see much any more, thanks to the transfer portal and NIL: the quietly excellent mid-major team that earns national rankings. Duke, meanwhile, are a soft team. Yeah, they can beat a team like Vermont, but every time they've had a rough game, they've folded. Which is to say: this has "trap game" written all over it for Duke.
Prediction: James Madison 77, Duke 65
NC State (11) vs Oakland (14): This is the Cinderella matchup we're gonna get, I suppose. Better than not having one. As much as I want the Jack Stohlke train to keep rolling, I think the Wolfpack are on one of those all-time runs. It keeps going here; they should win this one fairly comfortably.
Prediction: NC State 75, Oakland 60
Marquette (2) vs Colorado (10): For about 30 minutes, Marquette looked like they were completely choking against Western Kentucky. Then they woke up, and ended up winning that game going away. Teams like the Golden Eagles generally have one game in the tournament where they're switched off, but once that happens, if they survive, they lock in and are incredibly difficult to beat. As a former Coloradan, I'd love to see Colorado pull off the upset, but I don't think it's happening.
Prediction: Marquette 91, Colorado 79
Midwest Region
Purdue (1) vs Utah State (8): Man, I went back and forth on this one. On the one hand: Purdue has looked like they mean business all season long. Zach Edey is a problem for opponents, and he's been delivering the whole year.
On the other hand: Purdue's post-season disappearing act isn't just a Matt Painter issue, it was an issue when Gene Keady coached the team. It's just become really noticeable the last few years. Utah State, meanwhile, absolutely manhandled TCU on Friday night. I think Purdue edges the Aggies, but man, it's hard not to pick Utah State to continue Purdue's March misery.
Prediction: Purdue 86, Utah State 84 (2OT)
Kansas (4) vs Gonzaga (5): Look, I'm still mad about how Samford got robbed at the end of the game. Kansas got a win gift-wrapped by the officials. They shouldn't even be playing here! Gonzaga, meanwhile, has had an off-year by their lofty standards. I thought McNeese State was going to beat them, but they won that game in a rout. After watching that game, I think folks are sleeping on Gonzaga. I think the Bulldogs rock the Jayhawks here, and get the bandwagon going.
Prediction: Gonzaga 83, Kansas 64
Creighton (3) vs Oregon (11): The Creighton Bluejays were one of my sleeper Final Four picks. If you don't watch Big East basketball, you probably don't know that this team is a legitimately good team. Oregon's good, too, and they could pull off the upset, but I think this is the year Creighton crashes the Final Four.
Prediction: Creighton 82, Oregon 75
Tennessee (2) vs Texas (7): The knock on Rick Barnes is that he can't win The Big One™. Which, fine, I get it. But this is his best Tennessee team, and as solid as Texas might have been this season, they're not that solid. Still, I think this is a tight affair, and if it's close late, the Longhorns could swipe it. I'm picking the Vols to win this, though.
Prediction: Tennessee 63, Texas 59 (OT)
West Region
North Carolina (1) vs Michigan State (9): Let's be clear--this is not a good Michigan State team. The Spartans are sufficiently bad that I picked against them. So, of course they ripped off a convincing win against Mississippi State in the first round. North Carolina's good, but they were sufficiently unconvincing in losing to NC State in the ACC final that folks thought Arizona would overtake them for that final #1 seed. The other thing here is that MSU's Tom Izzo is brilliant at short game turnaround planning. That's why I'm picking Michigan State for the upset.
Prediction: Michigan State 59, North Carolina 54
Alabama (4) vs Grand Canyon (12): This should be a wild, entertaining game. Alabama plays some truly chaotic ball; GCU, meanwhile, is a wildly under-seeded, legitimately good mid-major team, like James Madison. Against St. Mary's, I'd like Alabama's chances. Against GCU--which completely shut the Gaels down--I feel like the Tide could have issues getting going. I'm picking the Lopes here.
Prediction: Grand Canyon 77, Alabama 68
Baylor (3) vs Clemson (6): This should be a good, tight game. Clemson impressed me against New Mexico. Baylor absolutely dismantled Colgate. I think Baylor's got the edge on talent and experience, but don't be surprised if the Tigers edge the Bears here.
Prediction: Baylor 68, Clemson 63
Arizona (2) vs Dayton (7): I know I picked Long Beach State to upset Arizona, but that was solely based on sentimentality. Here in the real world, Arizona are an excellent team, and could've easily been the #1 seed in this region. That said: they've had some off nights this season, and Dayton's a sneaky good team. They went 25-7 this season in a tough Atlantic 10 conference. All I'm saying is, don't be shocked if the Flyers win this one.
Prediction: Arizona 79, Dayton 74 (OT)