March 24, 2024: Let's Keep Dancin'...
I love sports.
I try not to live my life with many regrets. It's too short for that, and there's just so much happening. I haven't always felt that way--depression has a way of straight-up fucking with that--but it is an abiding truth I live by now.
I do, however, regret my inability to become a successful sportswriter. If journalism is mired in a multi-decade economic cataclysm, that's nothing compared to sports journalism. You have to embrace a relentless "hustle-and-grind" mindset to simply survive as a full-time sports writer, and as I found out through painful experience, I am not wired that way.
I wouldn't be who I am if I were, and since I like who I am, I'm glad I found out that small, yet essential detail. But it still stings a little that I couldn't make it work. Weekends like the second and third weekends in March are what I dreamt about writing when I was a quiet, weird teenager in Columbus, OH.
Other kids might've daydreamed about the clock winding down, stepping back behind the three-point line, and draining an ice-cold bucket as the clock expired; I daydreamed about calling the play:
"Esiason takes the snap. He rolls to his left, dodges one tackle, still looking. Steps to his right...Collinsworth across the flat; Esiason sees him, he throws into the end zone...touchdown!"
Or:
"Van Exel takes the inbound, passes it to Jones. Jones, over to Jackson. Ten seconds to go, back out to Van Exel up top, five seconds, four seconds, three seconds, Van Exel drives, the shot...GOOD! It's good! It's good! Bearcats win! Cincinnati heading to the Final Four!"
That will not happen. I don't mean Cincinnati going to the Final Four; that very much did happen, in 1992, and caused me no small amount of heart-sickness, since the Bearcats wound up squaring off against the other team I loved, Michigan's Fab Five. They lost, 76-72, and then Michigan lost to Duke, imperious Duke.
Rather: I will not call a game. That ship's sailed. The thing about middle age, once in it, is the death of dreams, and the death of that part of your self that believed those dreams were destiny.
I chose other things, small and large and in-between, and those choices came of other dreams I had, and there my destiny now lies. But at times like this weekend, I do lightly mourn the death of those dreams, and the life I might have led otherwise.
I love sports.
The first four days of the NCAA men's tournament are hands-down my favorite event of the sports year. Basketball is a "winter sport"; the first bounces of that orange ball come as the autumn turns to winter, and through it the games are played. The tedium of January flows into February, and then crescendoes into March, just as the pitchers and catchers and hitters and fielders travel down to the Gulf Coast and Southwestern desert.
Professional basketball might leisurely roll right through April and May and into summery June before it ends, but not the college game; it knows its place in our sporting calendar stage, and come March, it marches to its end in April.
First: Selection Sunday. 68 teams will play in the NCAA men's tournament; another few dozen will play in the penumbra of the NIT, or more recently, the CIT and CBI. On Monday, we discuss the injustice of Seton Hall or Murray State not receiving invites to the dance, as we measure the likelihood of George Mason defeating Indiana as an 11th-seed.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, eight teams play: the "First Four", named not for the number of teams, but for the fact that these are the first four games played. While the NCAA considers these tournament games, it's safe to say that they're more like play-in games: the folks picking the teams in the tournament frankly admit these are the last eight teams chosen to play.
For two of these teams--the 16th-seeds--these are almost certainly the only tournament games they'll win. Only three 16th seeds have ever beaten a #1 seed: once in the women's tournament, and twice in the men's. Harvard knocked off Stanford at Stanford in 1998, UMBC beat Virginia in 2018, and FDU beat Purdue in 2023. That Harvard win is the biggest upset in college hoops history, given the degree of difficulty.
And then, into Thursday and Friday, and then Saturday and Sunday. Some of us pick a team like Marquette to play deep into the tournament, only to see them crash headlong and out when they play a Western Kentucky or an Eastern Washington. And just like that, it's Sunday night, and midnight has--mostly--come.
This year was bereft of much of that. Of the teams playing in the Sweet 16, only one--North Carolina State--has a double digit seed. This is as strong, top heavy a Sweet 16 as I can recall. Which means that the selection committee, for all its presumed faults, did its job well.
I was in New Haven this weekend, watching games with M, my partner. We do this: we look at the calendar, figure out when the first weekend of the tournament is, and book a room in New Haven. We spend Saturday morning walking around the Yale campus, browsing books, visiting the art museum; we grab a pizza, we meet with friends. Then we watch basketball.
By coincidence, there were first round games played in Brooklyn this year; we thought about going, but Barclays Arena has some of the worst seating of any American stadium, and I simply couldn't justify spending that much on tickets for a decent seat.
M and I watched NC State's Wolfpack turn back a spirited challenge from Oakland's Golden Grizzlies on Saturday night. M cheered for Oakland, which hails from the suburbs of Detroit, and is considerably young as American universities go, founded in 1957. Before this weekend, its principal claim to fame may have been as the school David Hasselhoff attended, before becoming Michael Knight and racing through the night at KITT's helm.
I was torn; NC State is in the midst of a remarkable run. They won five games in five days to win their first ACC title in 37 years, and beat a terrific North Carolina team to do that. Those five consecutive wins earned them a game against Texas Tech in the first round of the tournament, which they won fairly comfortably for their sixth straight win.
Against them: Oakland, which fairly shocked Kentucky in their first game. Kentucky was unable to stop the Grizzlies' Jack Gohlke, an extreme gunner who seemed to step out of 1957.
I was torn because Oakland was a classic "Cinderella": that school you've never heard off that knocks off a favorite or two (in this case: Kentucky), and goes on a wildly-unlikely run. Only two 14th-seeds have ever made it to the Sweet 16: Cleveland State in 1986, and Tennessee-Chattanooga in 1997.
Oakland came close. Oh, so close. So close that they forced overtime.
There, the story ended. NC State survived the loss of two key inside players, and managed to throttle Gohlke just enough, and the sands of time ran through the hourglass of Oakland's dream.
I fell in love with college basketball over the course of four seasons: 1989, then 1990, followed by 1991 and 1992. I love the sport. But what I fell in love with, really, was what March Madness represents: a horizon of unlimited possibilities. That a team, like 1989's Michigan team, could win six games out of nowhere, and finish as champions. That a team like 2022's St. Peter's, unknown, unheralded, could stun the world not once, not twice, but three times, and come close to a fourth. That Trey Townsend and Jack Gohlke, for two days, could stand and deliver when no one but themselves thought they could.
So we're down to 16 teams. I did a singularly awful job of picking the winners, but predictions are fun, so what the hell, let's do it again.
East Region
(1) UConn vs (5) San Diego State: this is a rematch of last year's title game. I don't expect a different ending, though both the Huskies and Aztecs obliterated their second-round opponents. UConn should win this one easily.
Prediction: UConn 77, San Diego State 61
(2) Iowa State vs (3) Illinois
Iowa State had a weirdly tight game against Washington State; meanwhile, Illinois routed Duquesne. Personally, I'm pulling for Iowa State here, because there's no way I'm rooting for Illinois given the story here. I think the Cyclones win this, but I feel like it's going to be tight.
Prediction: Iowa State 86, Illinois 81
South Region
(1) Houston vs (4) Duke: Man, I am annoyed that Duke's in the Sweet 16. I really, really thought that James Madison would beat them; instead, the Blue Devils annihilated JMU, 93-55, and it wasn't that close, either. Meanwhile, Houston nearly spit it all up against Texas A&M, only to beat them 100-95 in OT. The Cougars are going to go as far as Jamal Shead takes them. I want Houston to beat Duke; I am unconvinced they will.
Prediction: Duke 83, Houston 78
(2) Marquette vs (11) NC State: NC State is on a ride. Only one other team won five games in five days to earn a tournament invite: the 2010-11 UConn Huskies. I'll let you look up how they finished the season, but it wasn't in the Sweet 16. Marquette played a tight one against Colorado, and they only had one good half against Western Kentucky. Marquette's a good team, but they can be beaten. My loyalty to the Big East (of blessed memory) meant that I picked the Golden Eagles to make the Final Four, but here? Here, I'm sticking with the Wolfpack.
Prediction: NC State 76, Marquette 72
Midwest Region
(1) Purdue vs (5) Gonzaga: Hoo, boy howdy, Purdue came to play in the first two rounds. I thought Utah State would play them tough; instead, it was basically a preseason scrimmage. So now, folks are buying into the Boilermakers.
I refuse to do that. I think Gonzaga has a shot at doing the funniest thing: beating Purdue, and getting folks to buy into the idea that this is the moment when the Bulldogs finally go all the way. So that's my pick here.
Prediction: Gonzaga 67, Purdue 62
(2) Tennessee vs (3) Creighton: Texas gave Tennessee a scare, but ultimately came up short; meanwhile, Creighton-Oregon featured one of the all-time heroic performances by Jermaine Couisnard, single-handedly carrying the Ducks the entire game. But Creighton outlasted them. More to the point, the Blue Jays are just one of three teams to have beaten Connecticut this season. Tennessee isn't that good.
Prediction: Creighton 85, Tennessee 77
West Region
(1) North Carolina vs (4) Alabama: I didn't think either UNC or Alabama would be in the Sweet 16. UNC, because they were playing Michigan State, and historically, MSU head coach Tom Izzo is fantastic at short-game turnaround planning. Alabama, because they were playing Grand Canyon, and the Lopes were legitimately a top-30 team, and the Crimson Tide some fun--but chaotic--basketball.
The reality is that Michigan State is a bad team, and the Tar Heels are a good, bordering on great team. If not for UConn, we'd be talking about them as genuine title contenders. Alabama, meanwhile, are just a skosh more talented than Grand Canyon, and that difference told down the stretch. Similarly, UNC is just better than the Tide.
Prediction: North Carolina 89, Alabama 74
(2) Arizona vs (6) Clemson: Again, the Arizona Wildcats are a good, almost great team. They nearly swiped the top seed in this region from the Tar Heels! They're also a bit uneven, in the sense that they could just as easily lose a game by 20 as they could win it by 30. That's why they're a good team, not a great team. Clemson, meanwhile, started ACC play with a 9-1 record, before stuttering a bit down the stretch. But whatever ailed them seems to have gotten fixed! I'm picking Arizona here, but a Clemson win wouldn't be a shock.
Prediction: Arizona 78, Clemson 73
OK, that's a wrap. I'm trying to get into a regular writing rhythm here; expect another email on Thursday with my regional final picks. I'll be in Boston for Easter weekend, visiting family and friends. Be well, folks.