Predict This: Prediction markets get a federal shield
The Signal The CFTC’s prediction-market rule proposal has moved into the White House orbit, with the administration publicly backing the agency’s claim to...
Predict This: Insider-trading law hits prediction markets
The Signal Polymarket just became the venue in a new federal insider-trading prosecution, with SDNY charging Google engineer Michele Spagnuolo over allegedly...
Predict This: Gambling law is eating distribution
The Signal Indonesia’s communications and digital ministry blocked access to Polymarket, classifying the platform as illegal online gambling rather than a...
Predict This: Spain blocks Polymarket, Kalshi access
The Signal Spain just forced a distribution reset for two of the category leaders: Polymarket and Kalshi were blocked nationwide as Spain’s Consumer Rights...
Predict This: Hyperliquid adds outcome markets, challenges PMs
The Signal Hyperliquid just made the most credible “liquidity-first” attack on prediction markets in years by shipping native outcome markets (HIP-4)...
Predict This: CFTC, NHL sign prediction markets pact
The Signal The CFTC just signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the NHL to formalize information-sharing and “integrity safeguards” around hockey-linked...
Predict This: House probes Kalshi, Polymarket trading
The Signal House Oversight just opened a formal insider-trading probe into Kalshi and Polymarket—an escalation that targets the market-integrity layer (KYC,...
Predict This: Polymarket targets Japan regulatory approval
The Signal Polymarket is planning a long-horizon, regulator-first entry into Japan—reportedly targeting formal authorization to operate there by 2030 and...
Predict This: CFTC sues over Minnesota prediction market ban
The Signal The CFTC just made a rare, aggressive move in favor of prediction markets: it sued Minnesota to block the state’s new, first-in-the-nation ban...
Predict This: Polymarket launches private-company markets
The Signal Polymarket is expanding beyond “public news” events into private-company outcomes—launching a new market category tied to IPO timing, valuation...
Predict This: CME, ICE press CFTC on Hyperliquid
The Signal CME Group and ICE are actively pushing the CFTC to scrutinize Hyperliquid’s onchain perpetuals—framing it as a market-structure and price-...
Predict This: Polymarket war bets flag insider trading
The Signal Polymarket just got hit with a mainstream “market integrity” narrative: a 60 Minutes/CBS package alleging a cluster of suspicious, highly specific...
Predict This: Interactive Brokers launches prediction markets hub
The Signal Interactive Brokers just put a “prediction markets hub” inside its core trading stack—aggregating access to event contracts from Kalshi, CME...
Predict This: CFTC no-action eases market reporting
The Signal The CFTC just issued a blanket no‑action position that meaningfully lightens the “plumbing” burden for regulated prediction markets: swap data...
Predict This: US probes Polymarket with AI surveillance
The Signal The CFTC just made Polymarket-style markets an explicit target of modern market surveillance, telling WIRED it’s using AI to triage “insider...
Predict This: Polymarket opens US iOS, drops waitlist
The Signal Polymarket just flipped its most important distribution switch: U.S. iOS is now open with the waitlist removed. After spending the last year...
Predict This: CFTC asserts exclusive prediction market authority
The Signal The CFTC is escalating from “we regulate event contracts” to “states don’t get a parallel rulebook,” filing an amicus brief in KalshiEx LLC v....
Predict This: Kalshi confirms $1B Series F raise
The Signal Kalshi’s confirmed $1B Series F at a reported $22B valuation turns “regulated prediction markets” from a niche category into a capital-rich...
Predict This: Polymarket faces anonymity, Panama scrutiny
The Signal Polymarket’s offshore footprint is becoming a front-page product risk. A run of stories this week spotlighted that Polymarket’s registered Panama...
Predict This: Polymarket eyes $50M, token launch
The Signal Polymarket is reportedly shopping a $50M raise and floating a token launch—an escalation from “category leader” to “capital-markets platform.”...