Pre-Bell: VIX **normal** (18.58) · SPX **+5.8% above** its 200-day SMA · NASDAQ −2.78% (AI-spending…
Daily Market Brief — 2026-07-25
Weekend tape — here's what's worth your time.
VIX normal (18.58) · SPX +5.8% above its 200-day SMA · NASDAQ −2.78% (AI-spending panic, Friday Jul 24) · XLY −4.04% worst S&P sector · TSLA −16.3% · VXN +6.17% (NASDAQ-specific vol spike).
News (last 24h)
- [MarketWatch, 24h] Investors are in the dark about the Fed's decision this week — and that's just how Warsh wants it
- [FinancialJuice, 24h] Samsung Electronics, Broadcom sign memorandum of understanding for $200 billion advanced memory chip-foundry deal over 5 years
- [FinancialJuice, 24h] SK Group to provide $750 billion in chips to U.S. tech firms including Nvidia: Yonhap
- [FinancialJuice, 24h] Naver teams up with Brookfield and Nvidia to boost South Korea's national AI factory infrastructure development
- [FinancialJuice, 24h] Samsung Elec, SK Hynix to pursue 1,375 trillion won chip alliance with U.S. tech firms: South Korea presidential advisor
- [Yahoo, 24h] Dow Jones Futures: Market Triggers Sell Signal; Apple Earnings, Iran News, Fed Meeting In Focus
- [FinancialJuice, 24h] Yemen's Houthis carried out attacks on Aramco sites in Saudi Jizan and Yanbu; Saudi Arabia yet to confirm
- [FinancialJuice, 24h] Ukraine hits Russia's Filanovsky oil platform and two cargo ships in Caspian Sea: security service
- [Yahoo, 24h] General Motors (GM) Lifts 2026 Outlook: Is GM Stock Still a Buy?
- [Yahoo, 24h] Intel's Strong Earnings Couldn't Save the Stock From an AI Spending Panic
Observations
Today's setup: Friday's session delivered the week's defining verdict: AI money is migrating from the companies spending it to the companies supplying it. NASDAQ fell 2.78%, Tesla crashed 16.3%, Meta dropped 5.1%, and semiconductors (SMH −4.38%) followed the hyperscalers lower — all while Taiwan's TAIEX gained 5.1% on the week and Korea's KOSPI added 4.1%, powered by a cascade of mega-deals funneling hundreds of billions into Samsung and SK Hynix. The FOMC meeting next week adds a layer of uncertainty nobody can price precisely, and VIX's mild pullback (-0.64%) contrasts sharply with a NASDAQ-vol index (VXN) that spiked over 6%.
The core tension this week was the AI capex dichotomy. For the hyperscalers — companies like Meta, Alphabet, and the data-center operators building out AI infrastructure — the sustained capital expenditure is a structural drag on free cash flow. The market punished this again on Friday. But that same spending flows directly to the memory chipmakers (Samsung, SK Hynix), foundries (TSMC), and GPU suppliers (Nvidia). The $200 billion Samsung-Broadcom foundry deal, the $750 billion SK-Nvidia chip commitment, and the Korean presidential advisor's mention of a $1.3 trillion combined chip alliance all landed this week — a once-in-a-generation industrial shift being priced in real-time. The picks-and-shovels side of this trade is in Asia, not Silicon Valley.
Geopolitics added a second narrative. Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco sites in Jizan and Yanbu pushed crude oil up more than 7% on the week, even as Friday saw a partial pullback (−3.1%) as the immediate premium cooled. Ukraine simultaneously struck Russian oil platforms in the Caspian, broadening the supply-disruption risk. Crude is back above $89 — a level that historically begins to feed into transportation costs and eventually core inflation, though the lag is typically several months. OVX (crude implied volatility) is up nearly 15% on the week, signaling options markets are pricing more upside risk to oil.
Equity rotation within the US was textbook defensive repositioning. As tech sold off, healthcare (+2.0%), industrials (+2.1%), real estate (+2.1%), insurance (+2.2%), homebuilders (+1.7%), and REITs (+1.8%) all gained. When longer-dated Treasury yields tick down even modestly — the 10-year fell roughly 2 basis points to 4.68% on Friday — duration-sensitive sectors like REITs and real estate feel the relief immediately through discount-rate mechanics. The curve remains upward-sloping (5Y at 4.43%, 10Y at 4.68%, 30Y at 5.16%) with no inversion signal.
Premarket Gappers
| # | Symbol | Price | Gap % | Pre-mkt Vol | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STAK | $8.29 | +528.0% | 4,000,000 | Technical rebound + AI-focused energy solutions expansion in North America |
| 2 | WLDS | $3.53 | +58.3% | 703,010 | White paper release + completed 1-for-3 reverse stock split |
| 3 | SAFT | $103.28 | +41.6% | 112,120 | Acquisition by Mapfre S.A. for $1.5 billion cash |
| 4 | JEM | $6.29 | +32.7% | 837,000 | Proposed increase to authorized share capital |
- STAK: "What's Going On With STAK Shares On Thursday?"; "Why Is Stak Stock Surging On Friday?"
- WLDS: "Why Is Wearable Devices Stock Surging on Friday?"
- SAFT: "Safety Insurance Group (SAFT) Stock Soars Over 37% After Hours: Here's Why"
- JEM: "707 Cayman Holdings (JEM) Stock Rallies Nearly 22% After Hours: Here's Why it is Trending"
Indices & Macro
| Symbol | Description | Last | Δ% | 52W pos | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPC | S&P 500 | 7,411.98 | −1.16% | 85.2% | ▄▃██▁ |
| ^IXIC | NASDAQ Composite | 24,975.82 | −2.78% | 66.6% | ▅▅██▁ |
| ^DJI | Dow Jones | 51,947.25 | −0.52% | 86.5% | ▇▂██▁ |
| ^RUT | Russell 2000 (US small-cap) | 2,930.00 | −1.01% | 87.1% | ▄▁█▄▁ |
| ^GDAXI | DAX (Germany, EUR) | 25,099.00 | −0.22% | 80.2% | ▂▂▆█▁ |
| ^FTSE | FTSE 100 (UK, GBP) | 10,736.23 | +0.18% | 89.6% | ▄▁▃█▅ |
| ^N225 | Nikkei 225 (Japan, JPY) | 64,611.15 | −2.73% | 75.1% | █▁▇▆▇ |
| ^KS11 | KOSPI (South Korea, tech-heavy, KRW) | 6,690.62 | −1.58% | 57.3% | ▅▁▄▄█ |
| ^TWII | TAIEX (Taiwan, tech/TSMC-heavy, TWD) | 43,654.84 | −2.67% | 81.8% | ▁▁▆██ |
| ^HSI | Hang Seng (HK / China, HKD) | 24,963.23 | +0.28% | 44.1% | ▁██▅█ |
| ^FVX | US 5Y yield | 4.426% | −0.78% | — | |
| ^TNX | US 10Y yield | 4.679% | −0.51% | — | |
| ^TYX | US 30Y yield | 5.162% | −0.17% | — | |
| DX-Y.NYB | US Dollar Index (DXY, trade-weighted) | 101.47 | +0.03% | 94.6% | ▁▃▆▅█ |
Commodities
| Symbol | Description | Last | Δ% | 52W pos | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GC=F | Gold | 4,070.80 | +0.60% | 34.7% | ▁▄█▃▄ |
| SI=F | Silver | 58.91 | +1.92% | 26.6% | ▁▆█▃▅ |
| CL=F | WTI Crude | 89.31 | −3.12% | 53.2% | ▁▂▄█▆ |
Soft Commodities (Agricultural)
| Symbol | Description | Last | Δ% | 52W pos | Seasonal (July) | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CC=F | Cocoa | 5,467.00 | +3.13% | 40.9% | T | ▆█▁▁▂ |
| KC=F | Coffee | 298.25 | −3.60% | 28.5% | L | ██▃▁▂ |
| ZS=F | Soybeans | 1,253.50 | +1.29% | 99.0% | S | ▂▁▄▆█ |
| ZC=F | Corn | 487.25 | +5.01% | 96.1% | S | ▁▂▇██ |
| ZW=F | Wheat | 678.00 | −2.62% | 84.8% | S | ▁▂█▆▂ |
| SB=F | Sugar | 14.76 | +0.48% | 40.2% | T | ▆█▃▁▄ |
| CT=F | Cotton | 79.89 | +0.06% | 68.1% | T | ▁▆██▄ |
Seasonal: L = long-biased month, S = short-biased, T = transition. Calibrated against 10y + 20y empirical futures backtest — context only.
Volatility
| Symbol | Underlying | Last | Δ% | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^VIX | SPX | 18.58 | −0.64% | ██▂▁█ |
| ^VXN | NASDAQ | 28.39 | +6.17% | ██▁▁▅ |
| ^GVZ | Gold | 24.33 | +1.29% | ██▁▁▆ |
| ^OVX | Crude | 68.00 | +4.12% | ▁▂▄▅█ |
Regime: normal (VIX 18.58).
Fear & Greed (CNN): Fear (39/100).
Sector ETFs
| Symbol | Sector | Last | Δ% | 52W pos | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | Technology | 175.88 | −2.44% | 68.3% | ▁▁██▅ |
| XLV | Health Care | 162.57 | +1.97% | 91.9% | ▇▁▄▁█ |
| XLF | Financials | 56.31 | +0.46% | 93.2% | █▄▆▅▁ |
| XLRE | Real Estate (S&P) | 45.95 | +2.09% | 97.2% | █▅▅▂▁ |
| XLE | Energy | 59.62 | +0.71% | 82.1% | ▁▂▄██ |
| XLB | Materials | 51.26 | +0.87% | 76.2% | ▆▁▁█▃ |
| XLI | Industrials | 182.66 | +2.13% | 90.4% | ▃▁▂▂█ |
| XLU | Utilities | 46.29 | +0.78% | 77.3% | ▂▁▁▇█ |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | 84.13 | −0.30% | 59.9% | █▇▄▅▁ |
| XLY | Consumer Disc | 109.41 | −4.04% | 21.3% | ███▇▁ |
| XLC | Communication Svcs | 106.30 | −2.66% | 8.3% | ██▇▆▁ |
| SMH | Semiconductors | 561.19 | −4.38% | 71.8% | ▁▁██▇ |
| GLD | Gold (ETF) | 371.90 | −1.90% | 34.0% | ▁▁▆█▃ |
| GDX | Gold Miners | 75.23 | −1.89% | 36.3% | ▁▁▅█▆ |
| XME | Metals & Mining | 101.74 | −1.70% | 47.5% | ▁▁▆██ |
| OIH | Oil Services | 391.66 | +0.82% | 70.3% | ▃▁▅█▅ |
| XOP | Oil & Gas E&P | 174.05 | −1.44% | 76.3% | ▁▁▅█▇ |
| PBW | Clean Energy | 31.66 | −6.41% | 38.8% | ▂▁█▅▁ |
| MOO | Agribusiness | 83.15 | −0.02% | 80.2% | ▄▁▁█▄ |
| IBB | Biotech | 188.14 | +0.61% | 84.1% | █▁▇▂▇ |
| KRE | Regional Banks | 75.73 | +0.17% | 88.5% | █▄▅▃▁ |
| KIE | Insurance | 64.14 | +2.25% | 91.0% | ██▆▁▁ |
| ITB | Home Construction | 97.09 | +1.73% | 36.7% | █▃▂▃▁ |
| VNQ | REITs (broad) | 100.81 | +1.81% | 97.6% | █▅▅▂▁ |
Earnings & Zacks
Reporting next ~7 sessions
| Ticker | Date | Timing | Implied move | Zacks Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APLD | 2026-07-27 | AH | ±14.0% | — |
| BE | 2026-07-28 | AH | ±22.8% | — |
| JBLU | 2026-07-28 | PM | ±9.0% | — |
| PYPL | 2026-07-28 | PM | ±7.3% | — |
| F | 2026-07-28 | AH | ±5.7% | — |
| BA | 2026-07-28 | PM | ±5.2% | — |
| KO | 2026-07-28 | PM | ±2.7% | — |
| ARM | 2026-07-29 | AH | ±13.0% | — |
| CVNA | 2026-07-29 | AH | ±11.4% | — |
| HOOD | 2026-07-29 | AH | ±9.7% | — |
| META | 2026-07-29 | AH | ±7.2% | — |
| MSFT | 2026-07-29 | AH | ±6.1% | — |
| AMZN | 2026-07-30 | AH | ±6.1% | 3 |
| AAPL | 2026-07-30 | AH | ±3.6% | 3 |
See you Monday, 60 minutes before the open.