Pre-Bell: VIX normal (15.32); Japan's Nikkei led global indices +2.53% and US tech printed fresh hi…
Daily Market Brief — 2026-05-31
Weekend tape — here's what's worth your time.
VIX normal (15.32); Japan's Nikkei led global indices +2.53% and US tech printed fresh highs (+2.23%); gold +2.08%. A risk-on but narrow tape — small-caps and most defensive sectors fell. Reflects the last session, Friday 2026-05-29.
Indices & Macro
| Symbol | Description | Last | Δ% | 52W pos | Regime · Bull/Side/Bear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPC | S&P 500 | 7,580.06 | +0.22 | 98.9% | Bull · 13/80/8 |
| ^IXIC | NASDAQ | 26,972.62 | +0.20 | 98.5% | Bull · 23/66/11 |
| ^DJI | Dow Jones | 51,032.46 | +0.72 | 99.3% | Side · 12/81/7 |
| ^RUT | Russell 2000 (US small-cap) | 2,919.34 | -0.59 | 97.4% | Side · 22/64/14 |
| ^GDAXI | DAX (Germany, EUR) | 25,104.70 | +0.05 | 88.9% | Side · 15/78/7 |
| ^FTSE | FTSE 100 (UK, GBP) | 10,409.30 | -0.16 | 76.4% | Side · 8/87/5 |
| ^N225 | Nikkei 225 (Japan, JPY) | 66,329.50 | +2.53 | 99.4% | Bull · 23/68/10 |
| ^HSI | Hang Seng (HK / China, HKD) | 25,182.39 | +0.70 | 46.7% | Side · 18/66/16 |
| ^FVX | US 5Y yield | 4.149% | -0.26 | 76.1% | — |
| ^TNX | US 10Y yield | 4.453% | -0.04 | 68.4% | — |
| ^TYX | US 30Y yield | 4.993% | +0.16 | 69.5% | — |
| DX-Y.NYB | US Dollar Index (DXY, trade-weighted) | 98.91 | -0.11 | 66.0% | Side · 0/99/0 |
Commodities
| Symbol | Description | Last | Δ% | 52W pos | Regime · Bull/Side/Bear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GC=F | Gold | 4,593.00 | +2.08 | 57.4% | Side · 17/77/6 |
| SI=F | Silver | 75.88 | +0.30 | 48.3% | Side · 29/53/19 |
| CL=F | WTI Crude | 87.36 | -1.73 | 50.2% | Bear · 33/40/27 |
Soft Commodities (Agricultural)
| Symbol | Description | Last | Δ% | 52W pos | Seasonal (May) | Regime · Bull/Side/Bear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CC=F | Cocoa | 3,923.00 | -4.29 | 14.5% | L | Bull · 32/41/27 |
| KC=F | Coffee | 265.60 | -3.15 | 1.6% | T | Bear · 30/44/26 |
| ZS=F | Soybeans | 1,186.75 | -0.65 | 86.1% | L | Side · 17/67/16 |
| ZC=F | Corn | 446.75 | -1.97 | 69.0% | S | Side · 19/62/19 |
| ZW=F | Wheat | 610.50 | -2.16 | 63.2% | T | Side · 25/52/22 |
| SB=F | Sugar | 14.07 | +1.01 | 20.4% | S | Side · 24/52/24 |
| CT=F | Cotton | 76.15 | -0.81 | 54.8% | S | Side · 24/58/18 |
Volatility
| Symbol | Underlying | Last | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|
| ^VIX | SPX | 15.32 | -2.67 |
| ^VXN | NASDAQ | 22.58 | -1.48 |
| ^GVZ | Gold | 24.91 | +0.32 |
| ^OVX | Crude | 57.84 | -0.79 |
Regime: normal.
Sector ETFs
| Symbol | Sector | Last | Δ% | 52W pos | Regime · Bull/Side/Bear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | Technology | 191.02 | +2.23 | 99.2% | Bull · 29/60/12 |
| XLV | Health Care | 149.47 | -0.93 | 65.9% | Side · 13/81/6 |
| XLF | Financials | 51.58 | +0.60 | 44.2% | Side · 21/70/9 |
| XLRE | Real Estate (S&P) | 43.99 | -0.95 | 81.1% | Side · 16/73/10 |
| XLE | Energy | 56.29 | -1.16 | 68.9% | Bear · 27/57/17 |
| XLB | Materials | 51.15 | -0.41 | 75.3% | Side · 20/69/10 |
| XLI | Industrials | 173.13 | -0.39 | 83.9% | Side · 20/71/8 |
| XLU | Utilities | 44.42 | -0.47 | 57.3% | Bear · 16/76/9 |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | 82.91 | -1.80 | 51.7% | Side · 8/86/6 |
| XLY | Consumer Disc | 120.87 | -0.97 | 80.4% | Side · 23/65/12 |
| XLC | Communication Svcs | 115.69 | -0.84 | 76.8% | Side · 19/69/12 |
| SMH | Semiconductors | 598.93 | -0.15 | 96.5% | Bull · 38/47/16 |
| GLD | Gold (ETF) | 417.12 | +1.05 | 55.9% | Side · 17/77/5 |
| GDX | Gold Miners | 89.49 | +2.65 | 59.0% | Side · 34/41/25 |
| XME | Metals & Mining | 125.21 | -0.98 | 86.3% | Bull · 36/41/22 |
| OIH | Oil Services | 418.25 | -0.58 | 83.2% | Bear · 33/37/29 |
| XOP | Oil & Gas E&P | 163.99 | -0.59 | 63.2% | Bear · 34/40/26 |
| PBW | Clean Energy | 45.33 | -1.20 | 96.3% | Bull · 33/43/24 |
| MOO | Agribusiness | 79.46 | -1.05 | 58.8% | Bear · 14/77/9 |
| IBB | Biotech | 172.18 | -0.03 | 87.4% | Side · 22/63/15 |
| KRE | Regional Banks | 69.61 | +0.09 | 75.9% | Side · 28/51/21 |
| KIE | Insurance | 55.16 | -0.88 | 21.9% | Side · 15/77/8 |
| ITB | Home Construction | 93.06 | -0.13 | 24.5% | Side · 31/51/18 |
| VNQ | REITs (broad) | 95.70 | -0.88 | 81.5% | Side · 15/74/11 |
Seasonal: L = long-biased month, S = short-biased, T = transition. Calibrated against 10y + 20y empirical futures backtest — context only.
Earnings & Zacks
Reporting next ~7 sessions
| Ticker | Date | Timing | Implied move | Zacks Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRDO | 2026-06-01 | AH | 15.9% | |
| HIVE | 2026-06-01 | AH | 15.2% | |
| HPE | 2026-06-01 | AH | 15.1% | |
| GTLB | 2026-06-02 | AH | 14.41% | |
| PANW | 2026-06-02 | AH | 9.31% | |
| TIGR | 2026-06-02 | PM | 8.85% | |
| DG | 2026-06-02 | PM | 8.63% | 3 |
| ULTA | 2026-06-02 | AH | 8.2% | |
| AI | 2026-06-03 | AH | 12.63% | |
| CRWD | 2026-06-03 | AH | 8.84% | |
| M | 2026-06-03 | PM | 8.38% | |
| AVGO | 2026-06-03 | AH | 8.24% |
Observations
Reflecting Friday's close (2026-05-29); US markets are closed for the weekend.
It was a risk-on session, but a narrow one. Japan's Nikkei led the world higher (+2.53%, finishing the week within a whisker of its 52-week high), and on Wall Street the gains were almost entirely a large-cap technology story: the tech sector ETF rose 2.23% to a fresh high and pulled the S&P 500 (+0.22%) and Nasdaq (+0.20%) up with it. Underneath, though, breadth was thin — the Russell 2000 small-cap index fell 0.59% and most sectors closed lower, including consumer staples (−1.80%), discretionary (−0.97%), health care (−0.93%) and energy (−1.16%). When an index climbs on one sector while small-caps and defensives sag, the rally is leaning on a small number of names.
There was a notable split within technology: software and mega-caps rallied hard while semiconductors were flat-to-lower (the semis ETF −0.15%). The two usually move together on AI-spending optimism; on Friday they didn't, suggesting the bid was concentrated in index heavyweights rather than a broad chip-demand impulse.
Gold had a clean, orderly day. Bullion rose 2.08%, the gold ETF 1.05%, and gold miners 2.65% — the miners out-running the metal by roughly two-and-a-half times, the operating-leverage relationship that defines a healthy gold-complex move. A softer dollar (the dollar index slipped to 98.91) helped: a weaker greenback makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for the rest of the world. Gold's own volatility gauge barely moved, so this was a grind higher, not a panic bid.
Energy fell with crude. WTI dropped 1.73% to $87.36 and dragged the whole energy complex down — sector ETF, oil services and explorers all lower — the direct line from the oil price to energy-equity earnings.
The yield curve steepened mildly: short-term yields eased while the 30-year held just under 5%. That elevated long end kept rate-sensitive corners under pressure — real estate, utilities and REITs all closed lower. Volatility stayed benign: the VIX fell to 15.32, near the bottom of its yearly range, easing as stocks rose — the normal, healthy inverse pattern.
In commodities, the soft complex was heavy across the board: cocoa led decliners (−4.29%) and coffee (−3.15%) is now trading at the very bottom of its 52-week range, with grains lower as well.
Note on the Regime column. Each entry shows the current Markov regime — Bull, Side (sideways), or Bear — classified by whether the trailing 20-day return was above +5%, below -5%, or in between. The three numbers after the dot are the long-run stationary mix: the share of the past 10 years the asset has spent in each regime, in Bull/Side/Bear order. So ^GSPC: Side · 13/80/8 reads as: currently Sideways, and historically about 80% Sideways, 13% Bull, 8% Bear. Yields and volatility indices are excluded because their bps-change semantics don't fit the multiplicative-return assumption underlying the model.
See you Monday, 60 minutes before the open.