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SignalMorning
What repriced overnight — in 5 minutes, in your language
Five minutes — before markets open.
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View today's digest
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In 30 seconds
- The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to $6,846, while the Nasdaq gained 0.6% to $23,048.
- The Brent crude oil price surged 5.1% to $100.06, reflecting ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
- The USD index was relatively stable, with the EUR/USD pair trading at 1.092.
- The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note remained at 3.95%, as investors await the release of US inflation data.
- The Fear & Greed Index is indicating extreme fear, with a reading of 12/100.
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Good morning — markets await US inflation data.
Geopolitics and earnings drive market volatility.
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Overcast New York 23° · Partly cloudy London 12° · Overcast Singapore 27° · Overcast Tokyo 13° · Clear Sydney 12°
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Signal of the day
The market vs wires tension is spicy, with the US inflation data release being closely watched by investors and traders. The outcome is uncertain, and the market is pricing in a high likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in May.
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Markets in brief
Cash tape
| S&P 500 |
$6,846 |
+0.4% |
| Nasdaq |
$23,048 |
+0.6% |
| Bitcoin |
$72,245 |
+2.1% |
| Brent |
$100.06 |
+5.1% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€18,024
-1.0% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€10.35 |
-1.6% |
| BBVA |
€19.70 |
-0.0% |
| Inditex |
€52.92 |
-2.0% |
| Telefónica |
€3.79 |
-1.5% |
| Iberdrola |
€20.03 |
-1.4% |
Macro read
The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to $6,846, while the Nasdaq gained 0.6% to $23,048. The Brent crude oil price surged 5.1% to $100.06, reflecting ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The USD index was relatively stable, with the EUR/USD pair trading at 1.092. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note remained at 3.95%, as investors await the release of US inflation data. The market is pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in May, with a 60% probability of a rate cut by the end of the year.
What to watch today
- US inflation data release
- FOMC meeting minutes
- earnings reports from major companies
Prediction markets
Likely
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections
The probability of the Democratic Party controlling the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections stands at 56%, reflecting the current political landscape and recent trends in voter sentiment. This market is likely to be influenced by the upcoming primaries and candidate debates. The crowd is pricing in a high likelihood of Democratic candidates performing well in key battleground states.
Context
The 2026 US midterm elections will determine the control of the Senate, with significant implications for policy and governance. The Democratic Party's chances of maintaining control are being closely watched, and the market is pricing in a high likelihood of Democratic candidates performing well in key battleground states. The probability of the Democratic Party controlling the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections stands at 56%, reflecting the current political landscape and recent trends in voter sentiment.
Implications for positions
If the Democratic Party controls the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections, it could lead to significant implications for policy and governance, including potential changes to the Supreme Court and federal judiciary. Traders should watch for updates on the primaries and candidate debates, as well as the potential for Democratic candidates to perform well in key battleground states.
Watch
- US inflation data
- FOMC meeting minutes
- earnings reports
Contested
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027
The market is pricing in a 53% probability of a new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts and the potential for new countries to join the Accords. This development could have significant implications for regional stability and cooperation. The smart money sees a high likelihood of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states playing a key role in the expansion of the Accords.
Context
The Abraham Accords are a significant diplomatic achievement, and the potential for new countries to join could have far-reaching implications for regional stability and cooperation. The market is pricing in a 53% probability of a new country joining the Accords before 2027, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts and the potential for new countries to join. The smart money sees a high likelihood of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states playing a key role in the expansion of the Accords.
Implications for positions
A new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 could have significant implications for regional stability and cooperation, potentially leading to increased economic and diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab states. Investors should watch for updates on diplomatic efforts and the potential for new countries to join the Accords.
Watch
- diplomatic efforts
- new country announcements
- regional stability updates
Very unlikely
Resolves Apr 15, 2026
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15
The probability of US forces seizing another oil tanker by April 15 is very low, at 20%, reflecting the current geopolitical tensions and the US's stance on Iranian oil exports. The market is watching for potential escalations in the region, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. The crowd is pricing in a low likelihood of a major conflict between the US and Iran.
Context
The US has been involved in a standoff with Iran over oil exports, with the US imposing sanctions and Iran attempting to circumvent them. The market is watching for potential escalations in the region, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of US forces seizing another oil tanker by April 15 is very low, at 20%, reflecting the current geopolitical tensions and the US's stance on Iranian oil exports.
Implications for positions
The seizure of another oil tanker by US forces by April 15 could lead to significant escalation in the region, potentially disrupting global oil supplies and leading to increased tensions between the US and Iran. Traders should watch for updates on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for conflict between the US and Iran.
Watch
- oil tanker seizures
- US-Iran tensions
- Strait of Hormuz updates
Very unlikely
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026
The probability of Nicolás Maduro being the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026 is very low, at 20%, reflecting the current political instability and opposition to Maduro's regime. The market is watching for developments and potential changes in the country's government. The smart money sees a high likelihood of a transition to a new government, potentially led by the opposition.
Context
Venezuela is facing significant political and economic challenges, and the leadership situation is uncertain. The market is watching for developments and potential changes in the country's government. The probability of Nicolás Maduro being the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026 is very low, at 20%, reflecting the current political instability and opposition to Maduro's regime.
Implications for positions
The transition to a new government in Venezuela could lead to significant changes in the country's economic and political landscape, potentially leading to increased investment and trade with the US and other countries. Investors should watch for updates on the political situation in Venezuela and the potential for a transition to a new government.
Watch
- Venezuela election updates
- Maduro's government stability
- opposition developments
Ruled out
Resolves Jun 30, 2026
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31
The probability of Gemini 3.5 being released by May 31 is very low, at 5%, reflecting the market's skepticism about Google's ability to release the AI model by the end of May. The development and release of AI models can be unpredictable, and the market is pricing in a low likelihood of meeting this deadline. The crowd is watching for updates on the development and potential release date of Gemini 3.5.
Context
Gemini 3.5 is a highly anticipated AI model, and its release could have significant implications for the tech industry. The market is watching for updates on the development and potential release date of Gemini 3.5. The probability of Gemini 3.5 being released by May 31 is very low, at 5%, reflecting the market's skepticism about Google's ability to release the AI model by the end of May.
Implications for positions
The release of Gemini 3.5 by May 31 could have significant implications for the tech industry, potentially leading to increased competition and innovation in the field of artificial intelligence. Traders should watch for updates on the development and potential release date of Gemini 3.5.
Watch
- Gemini 3.5 development updates
- AI model release dates
- tech industry announcements
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What didn't move much
Ruled outAmanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner· vol 995k
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Useful resource · Brent $100/bbl
Brent crude is above $100. Energy costs can ripple through portfolios — diversification matters.
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On the wire
Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Editorial brief
The global economy is facing significant challenges, including rising geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and economic instability. The US inflation data release will be closely watched, as it will have significant implications for monetary policy and the overall economy. The market is pricing in a high likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in May, but the outcome is uncertain.
Read full analysis →
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The market is always unpredictable, and today is no exception. Stay tuned for further updates and analysis.
If you only watch one thing today
The US inflation data release is the most important event to watch today, as it will have significant implications for monetary policy and the overall economy.
What will be the impact of the US inflation data release on the overall economy and monetary policy?
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