| |
|
PolyNews
Implied odds — plain English
Five minutes — before markets open.
|
false
|
|
|
View today's digest
|
|
In 30 seconds
- The US recession probability has decreased to 32%, down from 35% yesterday.
- The probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Fed after the June 2026 meeting has decreased to 4%, down from 5% yesterday.
- The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to pose a significant risk to global stability, with the potential for direct military involvement from NATO/EU organizations.
- The outcome of the Maduro trial could have significant implications for Venezuela and the region, with the potential for political instability and economic uncertainty.
- The success of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie could have significant implications for the film industry, with the potential for a boost in box office revenues.
|
|
Good morning — risk assets rebound
Global markets steady as Trump hints at Iran war exit
|
|
Mostly clear New York 20° · Overcast London 11° · Partly cloudy Singapore 30° · Overcast Tokyo 15° · Mostly clear Sydney 26°
|
Signal of the day
The market vs wires tension is high, with the market pricing in a moderate probability of recession and the wires suggesting a potential decrease in interest rates. Investors should remain cautious and monitor the situation closely.
|
|
Markets in brief
Cash tape
| S&P 500 |
$6,529 |
+2.9% |
| Nasdaq |
$21,591 |
+3.8% |
| Bitcoin |
$67,942 |
-0.4% |
| Brent |
$105.21 |
+1.2% |
Europe · context
IBEX +0.5% · Santander +0.0% · BBVA +1.4% · +3 names
Macro read
The US Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady, coupled with President Trump's suggestion that the Iran war could end in weeks, has led to a rebound in risk assets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have risen by 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively, while Brent crude oil has increased by 1.2% to $105.21. The USD has weakened slightly, with the EUR/USD pair trading at 1.093. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen to 3.85%, indicating a decrease in inflation expectations. The macro setup suggests a cautious approach to risk, with investors waiting for further developments on the Iran conflict and the Fed's monetary policy.
What to watch today
- The US GDP growth rate release
- The Fed interest rate decision
- The Iran conflict escalation
Prediction markets
Unlikely
Resolves Jan 31, 2027
US recession by end of 2026
The probability of a US recession by the end of 2026 has decreased to 32%, down from 35% yesterday, as the market becomes less pessimistic about the economy. This decrease reflects the current economic conditions and the Fed's recent statements. The market is pricing in a moderate probability of recession, with a 'yes' probability of 32%.
Context
The US recession probability has been decreasing over the past few days, reflecting the current economic conditions and the Fed's recent statements. The market is pricing in a moderate probability of recession, with a 'yes' probability of 32%. This decrease in probability has led to an increase in risk appetite, with investors becoming more optimistic about the economy.
Implications for positions
If the US recession probability continues to decrease, it may lead to an increase in risk appetite, with investors becoming more optimistic about the economy. This could result in a rally in equities and a decrease in bond yields. The market is pricing in a moderate probability of recession, and a further decrease in this probability could lead to a shift in investor sentiment.
What could move this
- US GDP growth rate
- Fed interest rate decision
- Iran conflict escalation
Ruled out
Resolves Jun 17, 2026
the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting
The market has ruled out a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Fed after the June 2026 meeting, with a 'yes' probability of only 4%. This reflects the current economic conditions and the Fed's recent statements, which suggest that interest rates may remain steady or decrease.
Context
The probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Fed after the June 2026 meeting has been decreasing over the past few days, reflecting the current economic conditions and the Fed's recent statements. The market is pricing in a low probability of an interest rate hike, with a 'yes' probability of only 4%. This decrease in probability has led to a decrease in bond yields, with the 10-year US Treasury bond yield falling to 3.85%.
Implications for positions
A steady or decreasing interest rate environment could lead to an increase in borrowing and spending, which may boost economic growth. This, in turn, could lead to an increase in inflation expectations, causing bond yields to rise. The market is pricing in a low probability of an interest rate hike, and a further decrease in this probability could lead to a decrease in bond yields.
What could move this
- Eurozone inflation rate
- ECB interest rate decision
- Brexit developments
Watch · ABC News
The Fed to announce latest interest rate decision Wednesday
Verified channel · opens in YouTube
Ruled out
Resolves Dec 31, 2025
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026
The probability of NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by June 30, 2026, remains low at 4%, as the market continues to assess the likelihood of direct military involvement from these organizations. The conflict in Ukraine has been ongoing, with tensions between Ukraine and Russia, as well as involvement from other international actors.
Context
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to pose a significant risk to global stability, with the potential for direct military involvement from NATO/EU organizations. The market is pricing in a low probability of such involvement, with a 'yes' probability of 4%. This low probability has led to a decrease in geopolitical tensions, with investors becoming more cautious about the economy.
Implications for positions
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to pose a significant risk to global stability, with the potential for direct military involvement from NATO/EU organizations. If the probability of such involvement increases, it could lead to a decrease in risk appetite, with investors becoming more cautious about the economy. The market is pricing in a low probability of direct military involvement, and
What could move this
- China GDP growth rate
- US-China trade talks
- Hong Kong protests
Very unlikely
Resolves Dec 31, 2027
Maduro guilty of all counts
The market indicates a low probability of Nicolás Maduro being found guilty of all counts, with a 'yes' probability of 27%. This reflects the complexity of the case and the uncertainty surrounding the outcome. The trial of Maduro is a significant event, and the outcome can have important implications for Venezuela and the region.
Context
The outcome of the Maduro trial could have significant implications for Venezuela and the region, with the potential for political instability and economic uncertainty. The market is pricing in a low probability of Maduro being found guilty, with a 'yes' probability of 27%. This low probability has led to a decrease in investor sentiment, with investors becoming more cautious about the region.
Implications for positions
The outcome of the Maduro trial could have significant implications for Venezuela and the region, with the potential for political instability and economic uncertainty. If the probability of Maduro being found guilty increases, it could lead to a decrease in investor sentiment, with investors becoming more cautious about the region. The market is pricing in a low probability of Maduro being found
What could move this
- UK GDP growth rate
- Bank of England interest rate decision
- UK election
Unlikely
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026
The probability of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie being the top-grossing film of 2026 has decreased to 32%, down from 35% yesterday, as the market becomes less optimistic about the movie's potential. This decrease reflects the competitive nature of the film industry and the uncertainty surrounding the movie's reception.
Context
The success of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie could have significant implications for the film industry, with the potential for a boost in box office revenues. The market is pricing in a moderate probability of the movie being the top-grossing film of 2026, with a 'yes' probability of 32%. This moderate probability has led to an increase in investor sentiment, with investors becoming more optimistic about the industry.
Implications for positions
The success of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie could have significant implications for the film industry, with the potential for a boost in box office revenues. If the probability of the movie being the top-grossing film of 2026 increases, it could lead to an increase in investor sentiment, with investors becoming more optimistic about the industry. The market is pricing in a moderate probability of
What could move this
- Japan GDP growth rate
- Bank of Japan interest rate decision
- US-Japan trade talks
|
|
What didn’t move much
Ruled outNancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election· vol 98k
|
Useful resource · S&P 500 +2.91%
S&P 500 is up 2.91% — when the tape runs, execution and fees still matter.
Invest with low fees →
Affiliate. PolyNews may earn a commission if you sign up — no extra cost to you.
|
|
On the wire
Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
|
|
Editorial brief
The global economy is facing significant risks, including the US recession probability, the Iran conflict, and the ongoing trade tensions. The market is pricing in a moderate probability of recession, with a 'yes' probability of 32%. The outcome of the Maduro trial and the success of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie could also have significant implications for the region and the film industry.
Read the full analysis →
|
|
On polynews.pro
|
|
Reply to this
| What probability do you give this outcome: “US recession by end of 2026”? |
| A real reply beats a click. We read the good ones. |
|
Reply by email
|
|
|
How you support PolyNews (at no extra cost)
To trade on prediction markets, you need crypto like USDC. Some of our links to exchanges use a referral code. If you sign up and trade, we receive a small commission. This allows us to keep the daily brief open and ad-free.
Get started on our recommended exchange →
|
|
Share this brief
Referrals: Refer 3 friends who subscribe → reader perks (details on the referral page).
Referral details →
Example: 1 of 3 toward the next unlock
|
|
The global economy is facing significant risks, and investors should remain cautious. The market is pricing in a moderate probability of recession, and the outcome of the Maduro trial and the success of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie could have significant implications for the region and the film industry.
If you only watch one thing today
The US GDP growth rate release, which could have significant implications for the US economy and the Fed's monetary policy.
Will the US recession probability continue to decrease, leading to an increase in risk appetite and a rally in equities?
|
|
|
