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Markets in brief
Cash tape
| S&P 500 |
$6,344 |
-0.4% |
| Nasdaq |
$20,795 |
-0.7% |
| Bitcoin |
$67,558 |
+1.2% |
| Brent |
$107.78 |
+0.4% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€16,969
+1.0% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€9.49 |
+0.9% |
| BBVA |
€17.99 |
+0.5% |
| Inditex |
€49.44 |
-0.1% |
| Telefónica |
€3.77 |
+2.6% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.72 |
+3.1% |
Macro read
Market snapshot: S&P 500 at 6,343.72 (-0.39%), Brent crude at $[object Object], Bitcoin at $67,558.24. Cash markets are setting the risk tone while prediction markets add the event risk that follows.
What to watch today
- US session liquidity
- Headline surprises
- Cross-asset flows
Prediction markets
Unlikely
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Netanyahu out by end of 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will re. Traders price a 42% chance.
Context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will re
Implications for positions
This market has $991k in volume, making it one of the more actively traded questions on Polymarket right now. The unlikely signal means the crowd sees this as a real but uncertain possibility.
What could move this
- Headline risk
- Liquidity into the US session
Contested
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of th. Traders price a 55% chance.
Context
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of th
Implications for positions
This market has $991k in volume, making it one of the more actively traded questions on Polymarket right now. The contested signal means the crowd sees this as a real but uncertain possibility.
What could move this
- Headline risk
- Liquidity into the US session
Ruled out
Resolves Dec 31, 2025
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing c. Traders price a 4% chance.
Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing c
Implications for positions
This market has $98k in volume, making it one of the more actively traded questions on Polymarket right now. The ruled out signal means the crowd sees this as unlikely but worth watching.
What could move this
- Headline risk
- Liquidity into the US session
Ruled out
Resolves Jun 3, 2026
the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections
South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Gover. Traders price a 4% chance.
Context
South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Gover
Implications for positions
This market has $988k in volume, making it one of the more actively traded questions on Polymarket right now. The ruled out signal means the crowd sees this as unlikely but worth watching.
What could move this
- Headline risk
- Liquidity into the US session
Ruled out
Resolves May 24, 2026
Braga win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League
This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Euro. Traders price a 4% chance.
Context
This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Euro
Implications for positions
This market has $98k in volume, making it one of the more actively traded questions on Polymarket right now. The ruled out signal means the crowd sees this as unlikely but worth watching.
What could move this
- Headline risk
- Liquidity into the US session
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