Ruled out

Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March

Market read: ruled out. The probability is low at 3% because current market trends and geopolitical factors do not strongly indicate a sharp decline in crude oil prices to $65 by the end of March. The market likely expects prices to remain higher due to ongoing global demand and potential supply chain disruptions.

Ruled out

Trump out as President by March 31

Market read: ruled out. The price is at 0% because Donald Trump's presidency is not expected to end by March 31, given the current political landscape and lack of any significant indicators suggesting his removal. The market has likely factored in the stability of his position.

Ruled out

Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination

Market read: ruled out. The probability is very low at 1% because it is early in the election cycle, and there are many factors and potential candidates that could influence the outcome of the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.

Unlikely

Ethereum reach $2,400 in March

Market read: unlikely. The probability is at 34% because Ethereum's price movements are influenced by a variety of factors including market sentiment, adoption rates, and regulatory news. The current price reflects a cautious optimism about Ethereum's potential to reach $2,400 by the end of March.

Ruled out

Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026

Market read: ruled out. The probability is low at 2% because there has been no significant announcement or indication from Anthropic about the imminent release of Claude 5 by the end of March 2026.