Very unlikely

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15

Market read: very unlikely. The probability of a US-Iran ceasefire remains low, with a 21% chance, as recent attacks on Gulf oil facilities have increased tensions. The market price reflects a low expectation of a near-term resolution.

Very unlikely

China x India military clash by December 31, 2026

Market read: very unlikely. The probability of a military clash between China and India remains low, with a 21% chance, as there have been no recent significant escalations in tensions between the two nations. The market price reflects a stable geopolitical situation.

Very unlikely

Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31

Market read: very unlikely. The probability of a Pakistan-Afghanistan ceasefire remains low, with a 14% chance, as the conflict in the region continues. The market price reflects a low expectation of a near-term resolution.

Ruled out

Netanyahu arrested by March 31

Market read: ruled out. The probability of Netanyahu's arrest remains extremely low, with a 2% chance, as there have been no recent developments in the corruption cases against him. The market price reflects a low expectation of imminent action.

Ruled out

J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination

Market read: ruled out. The probability of J.B. Pritzker winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination remains low, with a 3% chance, as the nomination process is uncertain and far in the future. The market price reflects a low expectation of his candidacy.