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View today's digest
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In 30 seconds
- Oil prices surge due to US-Iran conflict
- USD strengthens against major currencies
- VIX increases, indicating higher market volatility
- Tech industry developments, including AI and machine learning
- Crypto and NFT market news, including token launches
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Risk assets wobbly — geopolitics in focus
Markets on edge as US-Iran conflict escalates
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Overcast New York 21° · Overcast London 12° · Thunderstorm Singapore 32° · Mostly clear Tokyo 18° · Partly cloudy Sydney 24°
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Signal of the day
The market vs wires tension is spicy, with the US inflation data release being closely watched by investors and traders. The outcome is uncertain, and the market is pricing in a high likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in May.
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Markets in brief
Cash tape
| S&P 500 |
$7,041 |
+0.3% |
| Nasdaq |
$24,103 |
+0.4% |
| Bitcoin |
$75,100 |
-0.1% |
| Brent |
$98.76 |
-0.6% |
Europe · context
IBEX -0.5% · Santander -1.2% · BBVA -0.9% · +3 names
Macro read
The ongoing US-Iran conflict has led to a surge in oil prices, with Brent crude rising to $98.76, down 0.6% today. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have also been affected, with the S&P 500 up 0.3% at $7,041 and the Nasdaq up 0.4% at $24,103. The USD has strengthened against major currencies, with the EUR/USD trading at 1.093, down 0.2% today. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 3.55%, up 2 basis points, as investors seek safer assets. The VIX, also known as the fear index, has increased to 22.5, up 1.5% today, indicating higher market volatility.
What to watch today
- US inflation data release
- Fed speeches
- Oil price movements
Prediction markets
Ruled out
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
The Republican party's chances of controlling both the Senate and House in 2026 are slim, at 13% — a reflection of current political trends and polling data. The market expects the Democratic party to make significant gains in the midterm elections, with recent shifts in public opinion and electoral forecasts driving this assessment. The crowd is pricing in a low likelihood of a Republican sweep, with the probability influenced by recent changes in public opinion and electoral forecasts.
Context
The 2026 US midterm elections will determine the balance of power in Congress, with the Republican party currently facing an uphill battle to maintain control of both the Senate and House. The market expects the Democratic party to make significant gains, with recent shifts in public opinion and electoral forecasts driving this assessment.
Implications for positions
The US-Iran conflict has significant implications for the global economy, with potential effects on oil prices and the USD. The conflict also has implications for the tech industry, with potential effects on the development of AI and machine learning. As the situation unfolds, the VIX — also known as the fear index — has increased, indicating higher market volatility.
Watch
- US inflation data release
- Fed speeches
- Oil price movements
Contested
Resolves Jun 30, 2026
GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026
OpenAI's GPT-6 model is slated for release by the end of June, with a 45% probability — a moderate likelihood that reflects the uncertainty surrounding the model's development timeline and the company's priorities. Recent announcements or rumors about the model's development may have contributed to this probability, with the crowd factoring in a range of possibilities.
Context
OpenAI's GPT-6 model is a highly anticipated AI technology, with potential applications in AI and machine learning. The model's release could have significant implications for the tech industry, with potential effects on the economy and job market.
Implications for positions
The release of OpenAI's GPT-6 model has significant implications for the tech industry, with potential applications in AI and machine learning. The model's release could also have broader implications, with potential effects on the economy and job market.
Watch
- OpenAI GPT-6 model release announcement
- Tech industry news
- AI and machine learning developments
Likely
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026
The probability of OpenSea launching a token by the end of 2026 stands at 61% — a relatively high likelihood that suggests the market expects the company to make significant strides in the crypto and NFT space. Recent developments in the company's strategy and the broader market have likely contributed to this assessment, with the crowd pricing in a strong possibility of a token launch.
Context
OpenSea is a major player in the NFT market, with a potential token launch by the end of 2026. The token's launch could have significant implications for the crypto and NFT space, with potential effects on the market and investors.
Implications for positions
The launch of OpenSea's token has significant implications for the crypto and NFT space, with potential effects on the market and investors. The token's launch could also have broader implications, with potential effects on the economy and inflation.
Watch
- OpenSea token launch announcement
- Crypto and NFT market news
- Investor sentiment
Ruled out
Resolves Jun 30, 2026
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31
The market doubts Google's ability to release the Gemini 3.5 model by the end of May, with a probability of just 7% — a low likelihood that may be driven by concerns about the model's development timeline and the company's priorities. Recent news and updates from Google may have influenced this market position, with the crowd pricing in a low probability of a release by the end of May.
Context
Google's Gemini 3.5 model is an upcoming AI technology, with potential applications in AI and machine learning. The model's release could have significant implications for the tech industry, with potential effects on the economy and job market.
Implications for positions
The release of Google's Gemini 3.5 model has significant implications for the tech industry, with potential applications in AI and machine learning. The model's release could also have broader implications, with potential effects on the economy and job market.
Watch
- Google Gemini 3.5 model release announcement
- Tech industry news
- AI and machine learning developments
Ruled out
Resolves Apr 21, 2026
Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026
Elon Musk's tweeting activity is expected to be lower than the specified range, with a probability of 11% — a low likelihood that reflects recent tweeting patterns and other factors. The market expects Musk's tweeting activity to be muted, with the crowd pricing in a low probability of him meeting the specified range.
Context
Elon Musk is a highly influential figure in the tech industry, with his tweeting activity having potential effects on the price of Tesla stock and the broader market. Musk's tweets could also have implications for the tech industry, with potential effects on the development of AI and machine learning.
Implications for positions
Elon Musk's tweeting activity has significant implications for the market, with potential effects on the price of Tesla stock and the broader market. Musk's tweets could also have implications for the tech industry, with potential effects on the development of AI and machine learning.
Watch
- Elon Musk tweets
- Tesla stock price movements
- Tech industry news
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On the wire
Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Editorial brief
The US-Iran conflict escalates, with significant implications for the global economy and oil prices. The tech industry is also in focus, with developments in AI and machine learning. Meanwhile, the crypto and NFT market is experiencing significant movements, with token launches and investor sentiment shifting.
Read full analysis →
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Friday quiz
Which market moved the most in the last 24 hours?
A. 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
B. GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026
C. OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026
Answer + reader poll results: in Monday’s issue. Reply A, B, or C — we read every reply.
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The market is on edge, with significant implications for the global economy and various industries. The US-Iran conflict, tech industry developments, and crypto and NFT market movements are all in focus.
If you only watch one thing today
The US-Iran conflict and its implications for the global economy and oil prices.
What will be the impact of the US-Iran conflict on the global economy and oil prices?
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