Around and without the US
Many countries are saying this
Welcome to the Dispatch, a weekly low-key email of The Polycrisis. The theme we identified in January for the year(s) to come is how the rest of the world will organize around and without the US, as the great power becomes irrevocably capricious and volatile. Absolute scenes in the trade ‘negotiations’ with the EU underline the magnitude and chaos of this moment.
This edition we have some links and thoughts on the US continuing to act against its own interests, and the prospects for We're both in the UK later this week, and Tim will be speaking at the Beyond Neoliberalism conference in Cambridge. You can follow us here, here, email us here or here, and join us and other readers at the Polycrisis Discord.
-Kate
US energy own goals
But first, the US itself: late last week the IRA was (just about) completely undone. Tim described the two key strategies behind it, and why they have failed:
4/Why did IRA Deliverism fail? @danieldenvir.bsky.social & @tedfertik.bsky.social stress mediating, meaning-making institutions like unions, community groups were essential to whether deliverism & material investments can win as a theory for liberal democratic politics https://jacobin.com/2023/09/bidenomics-industrial-policy-infrastructure-chips-left-response-derisking-workers-climate-china
— Albert Pinto (@70sbachchan.bsky.social) 2025-05-23T16:01:59.647Z
5/ Why did IRA Political lock-in within GOP fail? Some ideas -radicalized GOP -Not about climate per se but that GOP coalition more unified on tax cuts for rich than on anything else -GOP IRA caucus fears defying Trump's MAGA coalition caveats: Senate still to vote. https://heatmap.news/politics/ira-political-theory
— Albert Pinto (@70sbachchan.bsky.social) 2025-05-23T16:09:15.350Z
“Failure” doesn’t necessarily mean these strategies were wrong, but merely too little too slow. ‘Deliverability’, takes more than a couple of years; and the lock-in was enough for some GOP Congresspeople to publicly support preserving IRA measures, but not enough for them to risk MAGA ire or blocking tax cuts.
Perhaps the un-delivering of IRA benefits, in the form of rising household energy bills, will backfire for Trump and Republicans? The REPEAT Project’s “Fork in the Road” report found average annual US household energy costs will be $100 - $160 higher under the repeals contained in the House H.R.1 budget bill:
Increasing the cost of living doesn’t predictably lose votes, however. In energy bills, as with electricity outages, narratives are key and blame can be vigorously thrown in all kinds of directions.
A wake up call for South-South collaboration?
We loved this piece by M. Rajshekhar about the Global South responses to the US, which included some optimistic comments from Jayati Ghosh.
For this reason, she said, internal trade within Africa has been growing. “The biggest increase in African manufacturing exports is within Africa,” she said. With the tariff shock, that consensus has deepened further.
Ghosh says the Global South needs the following to consolidate away from the US:
- Alliances / blocs
- Capital
- Payment infrastructure; namely, an alternative to SWIFT
- Security: made more difficult by Trump is blurring lines by trading security assurances for market access.
She also pointed out that as Trump has starved the World Health Organization of funds, and this could be remedied with a mere $2.1 billion:
The EU could give this sum without blinking an eye. So could India or China. The World Food Programme needs even less — just $400 million. But no country is stepping up to fill these gaps.
At his own Energy Trends newsletter, Rajshekhar highlighted excellent points from Sandra Babu-Boateng at Panagenius:
“These tariffs didn't create a crisis. They exposed one. They exposed just how vulnerable African economies still are when it comes to external demand, raw material exports, and low value trade. The second someone in Washington sneezes, entire industries in Africa catch a cold. And the second prices dip or preferences change, entire sectors can collapse.”
[…]“So what now? If there's a silver lining in all of this, it is that the tariffs may finally force a reckoning. More countries are talking about regional integration, infrastructure, investment, value addition and trade diversification not as buzzwords but as survival strategies. The question is whether this moment will finally push Africa from reaction to reinvention…”
IBSA, rather than BRICS?
The BRICS grouping was somewhat effective at amplifying non-alliance postures in the context of the Biden administration, but things have changed both outside and within the bloc, which failed to issue a communique at its latest meeting. Oliver Stuenkel argued in Foreign Policy that the time is ripe for rebooting a more effective subset of BRICS countries:
Even before IBSA’s creation, India, Brazil, and South Africa had collaborated to address the restrictive aspects of the World Trade Organization’s TRIPS agreement on intellectual property rights. Their efforts led to the 2003 TRIPS waiver, which allowed developing nations to export generic medicines during public health emergencies.
[… ]
When IBSA leaders got together for their last official summit in October 2011, being friends with all major global players was easier to achieve than it is today. Russia had not yet annexed Crimea and U.S.-China ties were far rosier than they are now. In the years since, the world has become more unstable, making strategic diversification paramount. Trump’s return to the White House adds a layer of unpredictability. But India and Brazil could, for example, play a supportive role for South Africa as its ties to the United States deteriorate under Trump.
US own goals on energy: security edition
“Among the technologies at which the Chinese are excelling, lithium-ion batteries are particularly important, as batteries are becoming like semiconductors: key building blocks of a host of military and civilian technologies, including armored vehicles, drones, electricity systems, and cars. Countries that can manufacture, deploy, and export clean energy technology, including world-leading batteries, will be more energy secure and prosperous this century. And the wealth accrued in this area will underwrite China’s ability to fund further investments in the People’s Liberation Army.”
- Greg Pollock and Josh Busby, National Interest
Still difficult: Removing CO2 from the atmosphere
Of 189 carbon dioxide removal (not CCS) projects listed, only 94 have removed any carbon… and the top ones are all biochar. Source: CDR.fyi leaderboards (h/t Akshat Rathi’s story about Climeworks laying off staff).
That’s it for this week - please forward to anyone you think would enjoy this, and sign up to receive our monthly essay newsletter at Phenomenal World.