Who the F is Pitching?
Lot's of up in the air pitchers, but we dig for some solid options!
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Heads up … as I’m getting the plays together there are a lot of “TBD” probable pitchers for the day. Been combing my resources to get the best possible guess of who’s starting, but it’s certainly possible some of these change before this email goes out. I’ll do my best to stay on top of the changes, but make sure to double check before putting in wagers.
Speaking of wagers … I’m in the sportsbook desert until Sunday so I won’t be posting any personal plays, but you will of course have all the tools you need to build your own. You got this!
Let’s jump into the plays for Friday, April 11th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Jackson Chourio (MIL) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-18 | .389 | .584 | 1.389 | .611 | 57.14% |
Chourio has great numbers against lefties to start the season and E-Rod is a very crappy lefty. Love this one. Probably need to lean bases, but could maybe do a H+R+R parlay too.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u for boosts), hit parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.
Rafael Devers (BOS) vs. Davis Martin [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5-18 | .278 | .435 | 1.111 | .333 | 75% |
What a difference a week makes .. the ice cold start has been left in the dust and Raffy is one of the hotter hitters in the game. Cold weather game about the only issue here.
TARGET MARKETS: TB/H+R+R (0.75-1u), HR (0.3), hit parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Wednesday, April 9 …
✅ Shohei Ohtani: 2-4, 2 runs
❓ Mookie Betts: 1-4, run … used him in an H+R+R parlay that worked, but bases didn’t hit
❌ Will Smith: 0-4
❌ Jose Ramirez: 0-3, run
❌ Wilyer Abreu: 0-3
❌ Brendan Donovan: 1-5 (just missed a damn HR)
✅ Josh Naylor: 3-4, HR, 3 RBI, run (pretty much saved our day)
✅ Sal Frelick: 1-5, 2 runs
❌ Matt Chapman: 0-5, run
Finished just barely in the green, which is always better than red, but not as great as WAY in the green.
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Corbin Carroll (ARI) vs. Elvin Rodriguez [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6-19 | .563 | 829 | 2.085 | .875 | 64.29% |
Couple sources have “the other E-Rod” also pitching in same game as “actual E-Rod.” This E-Rod hasn’t pitched very well this season either, so it’s a solid spot for Carroll. Super gaudy 2025 numbers above, but a very small sample.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (up to 1u), HR (0.25u), singles (0.75u), hit parlays
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Robbie Ray [GRADE: B+/A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18-61 | .295 | .467 | 1.252 | .311 | 67.5% |
Above numbers are 2024 for Judge against the 4-seam/slider mix. Ray is one of those guys who either spins a gem or lays an egg. Let’s go egg!!!
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (up 0.75u), HR (0.25u)
Spencer Torkelson (DET) vs. Chris Paddack [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-15 | .533 | .732 | 1.867 | .667 | 63.64% |
Paddack has been terrible this year and Torkelson is crushing the pitch mix so far. H+R+R would be ideal here.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.75u), HR (0.2)
George Springer / Vlad Guerrero (TOR) vs. Tomoyuki Sugano [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-14 | .500 | .460 | 1.071 | .000 | 53.85% |
Above numbers are for Springer, and you can see by the lack of ISO we ideally want H+R+R and/or singles here. You can open it up with Vlad a little if you want, but his ISO was .190 in 2024 against the mix which is good, but not great. NOTE: Check weather on this game before playing it!
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.75u), HR (0.2 … Vlad), singles, hit parlays
James Wood (WAS) vs. Cal Quantrill [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9-22 | .409 | .458 | 1.165 | .136 | 50% |
Quantrill is bad against everybody, but even worse against lefties. Above numbers are actually from 2024 … don’t have much yet for 2025 to go on.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u), HR (0.2)
Lawrence Butler (ATH) vs. Griffin Canning [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-28 | .250 | .361 | .893 | .143 | 34.78% |
A’s stadium had been hitter friendly so far this year, and Canning struggles with lefties. Butler’s numbers so far this year are only OK, but he also started off super cold the first week of the season.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u), HR (0.2)
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!