Tuesdays Aren't Just For Tacos
I asked Google what pirates used to eat back in the day and it said hardtack, salted meats, and dried beans. Mmmm … sounds awful!
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I asked Google what pirates used to eat back in the day and it said hardtack, salted meats, and dried beans. Mmmm … sounds awful!
I have no doubt Long John Silver or Blackbeard would’ve totally enjoyed Ye Olde Taco Tuesday. Cheap eats and tequila? Sign a pirate UP!
Big list today so let’s jump into the plays for Tuesday, April 8th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
NOTE: Weather been wonky in many cities this week, so be sure to check the forecast as well as any changes in probably pitchers.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Jose Ramirez (CLE) vs. Shane Smith [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-7 | .571 | .821 | 2.179 | .857 | 66.67% |
Smith was decent in his first start. But it was also his first start ever. And he pitches for the White Sox. So let’s not hand him the Cy Young just yet. I’m going to start working in 2025 pitch mix numbers more often, so that’s what you see here.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.
Juan Soto (NYM) vs. Connor Gillispie [GRADE: A-/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70-221 | .317 | .479 | 1.255 | .362 | 65.73% |
The only reason I don’t have this higher is because Soto has yet to get hot this season. That said, he has registered 5 “hard hits” in his 13 ABs against this pitch mix in 2025. 2024 numbers are solid too.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u), HR (0.2), hit parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Sunday, April 6 …
❌ Aaron Judge: 0-4
✅ Rafael Devers: 4-4, 2 doubles, 4 runs 3 RBI (and he hit a HR in game one)
❌ Oneil Cruz: 1-4 … Cruz starting to earn a spot on my shit list
✅ Sal Perez: 2-4, double run
✅ Nico Hoerner: 3-4, double, run, RBI
✅ Luis Arraez: 4-5, run, RBI
😒 Ivan Herrera: left with injury
Decent day though Judge done bummed me out this weekend.
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Jarren Duran (BOS) vs. Jose Berrios [GRADE: A-/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85-253 | .336 | .430 | 1.057 | .265 | 49% |
Duran has yet to get it going this season, but really he’s been hitting the ball hard with little to show for it, so I’m willing to take a shot, but not gonna go crazy bankroll either.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5-0.75u), HR (0.2u lotto), hit parlays (maybe)
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Landon Roupp [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
21-78 | .269 | .395 | .960 | .308 | 60.30% |
I’m gonna hope the books are dumb again give us close to even money on Elly o1.5 H+R+R so we can smash it. The ISO and Hard Hit get me excited for a 2B/HR too.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u), HR (0.2-0.3u), hit parlays
Brandon Lowe (TB) vs. Kyle Hendricks [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-17 | .412 | .508 | 1.176 | .353 | 72.73% |
Gaudy numbers in a small 2025 sample but historically does well vs. the 4-seam, change, sinker pitch mix that Hendricks brings.
TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.5u-0.75u), HR (0.2), would consider H+R+R as well but Lowe is often a lower average guy so we may lean TB (or split between the two).
Kameron Misner (TB) vs. Kyle Hendricks [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-13 | .538 | .585 | 1.390 | .385 | 81.81% |
Similar numbers to Lowe so a similar plan. I feel a tad bit better about hit parlays than Lowe.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u-0.75u), HR (0.2), hit parlays
Ian Happ (CHC) vs. Patrick Corbin [GRADE: B/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13-38 | .342 | .439 | 1.076 | .289 | 51.61% |
Good lord Patrick Corbin is still being allowed to pitch in the major leagues. Well ok then! Weather may be the only caution here, but Happ matches up well against the sinker/slider mix of Corbin. Also 13-43 with 2 HR in his career against him.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u-0.75u), HR (0.2)
Steven Kwan (CLE) vs. Shane Smith [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
53-166 | .319 | .410 | 1.015 | .187 | 25% |
Using 2024 numbers here but Kwan matches up really well. He’s definitely a guy where you’re looking for singles, hits, and H+R+R.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5u-0.75u), singles (might just be a parlay piece), hit parlays
Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) vs. Charlie Morton [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-11 | .364 | .400 | .993 | 0.91 | 16.67 |
Swinging the ball well to start the season and 5-9 career vs. Morton to boot. Numbers above are 2025 against the 4-seam/curve.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5u), singles (depends on odds), hit parlays
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!