Time to Go to Gambling School
Now that we have about a week under our belts, I’ve been running though questions, thoughts and observations from you wonderful scallywags.
Quick reminder: This email goes out every morning by 8a (eastern). If you don’t have it by then, something is going on with the service. If anything looks weird on your end, please email me directly at plundertheunder@gmail.com
First up … apologies to anyone that 247 emails from me yesterday. There was a glitch in my setup that made me THINK nobody was getting the premium emails. It also made me THINK nobody was getting the followup emails. So I sent it multiple times. AHHHH!!!!
Turns out it was something else and I figured it out … so apologies for bombarding your inbox. I suppose it’s better than getting nothing at all, right?
Before we get to the picks I wanted to share info from a conversation I had with a member yesterday about target players, markets, bankroll because I think it’s important.
Reality is it’s a lot of info, so I’ve written up a separate blog post on the Plunder website so it can live there permanently for whomever needs it. READ IT NOW
Let’s jump into the plays for Thursday, April 3rd. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Brenton Doyle (COL) vs. Taijuan Walker [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
44-120 | .367 | .434 | 1.051 | .250 | 44.55% |
First start of the year for Walker so we will see, but 2024 was pretty much a disaster for him. Doyle pairs up well with his junkball mixture of pitches. I’ll be looking TB/HR
TARGET MARKETS: TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u), hit parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage. Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.
Jarren Duran (BOS) vs. Charlie Morton [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
59-182 | .324 | .437 | 1.075 | .313 | 48.91% |
Duran has started the season well and is 3-7 off Morton in his career with a HR. Charlie is a high ground ball pitcher, so we limit our unit size if we use the HR market. If you can find a -130 or better H+R+R then we can try to work with that (especially if we can incorporate it into a boost).
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.25), hit parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Tuesday, April 1 …
💩 Yordan Alvarez: 0-4
💩 Pavin Smith: 0-2, run
✅ Brent Rooker: 1-3, HR, 2 RBI, 2 runs
💩 Corey Seager: 0-3
Brendan Donovan: 0-4
Not a great day. Donovan crushed two balls, including one with a 109 MPH exit velocity, but nothing to show for it. (Welcome to baseball!) Rooker at least rescued us from the reverse sweep.
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Bryce Harper (PHI) vs. Antonio Senzatela [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
45-151 | .298 | .411 | 1.010 | .265 | 48.25% |
Could’ve easily been a top tier selection, but I wanted to give a player from a different game than Doyle. Phillies haven’t exactly been lighting it up yet this season, but the numbers are there.
TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.75-1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays
Ramon Urias / Gary Sanchez (BAL) vs. Tanner Houck [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6-17 | .353 | .503 | 1.209 | .412 | 42.86& |
Couple rando player selections, but they clicked into the green. Small sample size for each … the above numbers are for Urias but Sanchez was similar across the board as well as a sick 72% hard hit rate in 25 at bats. Obviously you will need to check lineups here and also both are the kinds of guys who can get hit for late in a game.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R for Urias (up to 0.75u), TB for Sanchez (up to 0.75u). Could consider a light sprinkle on a Sanchez HR, but can easily fade the market too.
Ketel Marte (ARI) vs. Carlos Carrasco [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
50-187 | .267 | .379 | .933 | .230 | 50.34% |
The numbers are decent for Marte and Carrasco stinks in general. Could explore the singles market since Marte is 4-12 against him and all four hits were singles.
BONUS PLAY: Look to target Carrasco under on whatever his K line is at long the line is better than 3.5K and better than -130 juice. The guy simply can’t strike people out anymore.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (if better than -130 … 0.5u), singles (up to 0.75), hit parlays
Cody Bellinger vs. Merrill Kelly [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
50-196 | .255 | .351 | .847 | .204 | 36.39% |
Not 100% sold on this play but he’s been swinging a hot (torpedo) bat and I pretty much always hate Merrill Kelly.
TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.5u), HR (0.25u)
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!