The Wood is Good
Today features a lot of “pretty good” plays in the B+/B range but not a ton that on the “OH MY GOD!!!” standout level.
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Today features a lot of “pretty good” plays in the B+/B range but not a ton that on the “OH MY GOD!!!” standout level.
Let’s jump into the plays for Tuesday, April 15th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
James Wood (WSH) vs. Mitch Keller [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-21 | .333 | .471 | 1.190 | .333 | 53.33% |
I try to never trust anybody named Mitch (or Chad) in my life, so we're gonna put our hope on ol’ James here. Wood has been really solid (see what I did there?) the past week as well. I’ll point out that Josh Bell has solid BvP numbers against Keller as well if you’re looking to diversify.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75-1u), HR (0.3), hit parlays.
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.
Jarren Duran (BOS) vs. Zack Littell [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-14 | .500 | .511 | 1.214 | .143 | 58.33% |
Sox bats as a whole have been scuffling this week, but Duran has at least been decent. That said, they’ve had a hard time scoring runs, so everything becomes a little more challenging. Like I was saying … lots of “pretty good” plays today vs. elite monsters. H+R+R is what I would like here if the juice isn’t stupid.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.75u), TB (0.5u), HR (0.2 lotto), hit parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Sunday, April 13 …
✅ Manny Machado: 1-3, double, 2 runs
❌ Fernando Tatis: 1-5
❌ Nick Castellanos: 0-3
❌ Kyle Schwarber: 0-3
❌ Pete Alonso: 0-4, run
✅ Vlad Guerrero: 2-5, RBI
✅ Elly De La Cruz: 1-4, RBI
❌ Bobby Witt: 1-4
Honestly, I hate betting baseball on Sundays and may personally take the day off from actual plays. I’ll still deliver the Pitch Mix selections for those that want them, but it’s definitely the most hit or miss day of the week.
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Steven Kwan (CLE) vs. Charlie Morton [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-17 | .412 | .487 | 1.235 | .176 | 18.75% |
Singles hitter against a ground ball pitcher should hopefully get us the counting stats we need. Focusing mainly on singles, H+R+R and hit parlays here. NOTE: Carlos Santana has 2 HR off Morton if you’re looking for more.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5-0.75u), singles (0.5u), hit parlays
Adley Rutschman (BAL) vs. Logan Allen [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30-91 | .330 | .405 | .962 | .209 | 43.04% |
Above numbers are from 2024 but Allen flat out stinks and Adley traditionally hits lefties well.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5-0.75), HR (0.25), hit parlays
Ben Rice (NYY) vs. Michael Wacha [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3-8 | .375 | .443 | 1.125 | .125 | 50% |
Don’t love the power numbers here, but the sample size is very small (that’s what she said).
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5u-0.75u), HR (0.2u lotto), hit parlays
Xavier Edwards (MIA) vs. Merrill Kelly [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6-19 | .316 | .385 | .977 | .105 | 25.67% |
You know me … any time I can pick against Merrill Kelly I will. Basically zero power numbers here so we are just looking H+R+R, singles, and hit parlays.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/singles (0.5u), hit parlays
Jacob Wilson (OAK) vs. Sean Burke [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-22 | .364 | .413 | .972 | .227 | 25% |
The hard hit % is concerning, but there’s no denying he’s been swinging a hot bat.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5u), hit parlays
💣💣 PlunderSHOT of the Day 💣💣
Jonah Heim (TEX) vs. Yusei Kikuchi [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2-6 | .333 | .498 | 1.167 | .500 | 50% |
Also 3-7 in his career of Kikuchi, so we’re going with the “I gots dem vibes” for the PlunderSHOT selection.
TARGET MARKETS: TB/H+R+R (0.5u), HR (0.25)
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!