The Storm!! AHHHHH!!!! THE STOOOORRRRM!!!
Packed with daily picks, banking tips, and a dash of humor, I'm ready to roll for today's games!
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Guys … this email today is absolutely ridiculous. Today’s pitching lineup is basically “everybody’s SP5,” so we’ve got a billion places to look at.
I will say this … MANAGE YOUR BANKROLL! There’s a lot going on here. Nobody says you have to play absolutely everything, or throw a ton of money on every single play if you do. Here’s hoping we’re cashing like crazy today, but always make sure to stay within your comfort zone.
As always the top tier will be free, but you’ll need the SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM to get the rest.
I’ll also say this … I’m gonna keep the chatter and analysis to a minimum today for the sake of time. LFG!
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
A whole bunch of Phillies vs. German Marquez [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
57-230 | .248 | .385 | .958 | .261 | 62.82% |
The above table is for Kyle Schwarber who’s my favorite pick of all the Phillies you could use against the garbage pitcher. The average is low, but his average is always low, and he’s hot to start the season. The Hard Hit number is ridiculous too and he’s batting .429 off Marquez with two dingers.
Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto also showed up with the mix. Bohm is batting an absurd .625 off Marquez. Realmuto has been cold to start the season so I’m less interested in him if I’m trying to manage my volume, but he’s also batting .353 of Marquez. NOTE: Realmuto also nursing an injury this weekend so caution there.
TARGET MARKETS: Schwarber: TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u) Bohm: H+R+R/TB (1u) and HR (0.25u), hit parlays Harper: H+R+R/TB (1u) and HR (0.25u) Realmuto: H+R+R (0.5u)
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage. Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.
A whole bunch of Orioles vs. Sean Newcomb [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15-43 | .349 | .586 | 1.572 | .628 | 67.74% |
Fun fact nobody here will care about (except my buddy Sully who also grew up in the same town as me) … Sean Newcomb is from the same tiny town in Massachusetts that ol’ Plunder is from. So in some respects I hope I’m wrong and he has a great outing, but gambling ain’t got no feelings yo!
Those insane numbers you see in the table is for Tyler O’Neil who has the perfect storm of the numbers looking good along with him starting the season swinging well and a narrative game as he faces his old team. Ramon Laureano also has crazy numbers against the pitch mix (.550 AVG and .550 ISO to name a few). [NOTE: Need to check lineups on him] Adley Rutschman also has solid numbers and is in play,
TARGET MARKETS: O’Neil: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u), hit parlays Laureano: H+R+R/TB (0.75u), HR (0.2u) Rutschman: H+R+R ideally (0.75u), HR (0.2u)
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Saturday, March 29 …
❌ Shohei Ohtani: 0-2, 2 runs … I did manage to hit a like H+R+R boost, but that’s not good enough
✅ Yordan Alvarez: 1-4, double, RBI
❌ Oneil Cruz: 0-2, 1 run … 4 walks killed us here
❌ Matt Wallner: 0-4 … you stink!
✅ Bobby Witt: 1-4, double, RBI
✅ Bryan Reynolds: 2-5, 1 run
✅ Freddie Freeman: 2-4, HR, double, run, 2 RBIs
Finished in the green but Ohtani cost us from having a huge day. Buuuut … green is green!
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Kerry Carpenter (DET) vs. Emerson Hancock [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64-203 | .315 | .409 | .981 | .300 | 50.32% |
Great matchup for Carpenter.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (up to 1u), HR (0.25u), hit parlays
Juan Soto (NYM) vs. Cal Quantrill [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
34-92 | .370 | .506 | 1.300 | .359 | 59.42% |
Taking Cal Quantrill strikeout unders is pretty much how Plunder the Under got started. The guy sucks.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (up to 1u), HR (0.25u), hit parlays
Kyle Tucker (CHC) vs. Joey Estes [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
33-103 | .320 | .495 | 1.303 | .379 | 45.88% |
Another set of ridiculous numbers to consider. I told you today was nuts!
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (up to 1u), HR (0.25u), hit parlays
Brett Baty (NYM) vs. Cal Quantrill [Grade: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-25 | .400 | .484 | 1.180 | .280 | 44.44% |
My concern with Baty is he has been cold to start the season. Treading lighter here and you could certainly fade if you wanted.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5u)
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Jordan Hicks [GRADE: B+/A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31-97 | .320 | .449 | 1.112 | .340 | 53.01% |
Hicks has trouble with lefties and Yordan is one of those.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (up to 1u), HR (0.25u), hit parlays
Rob Refsnyder (BOS) vs. Cade Povich [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18-55 | .327 | .432 | 1.046 | .255 | 58.3% |
Refsnyder is sneaky good against lefties. Make sure he’s in the lineup cuz he’s been under the weather this week.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R should be a decent line I’d think (0.5-0.75u)
Corey Seager (TEX) vs. Brady Singer [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
25-95 | .263 | .385 | .963 | .211 | 49.35% |
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u)
Kyle Manzardo (CLE) vs. Kyle Hart [GRADE: B/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
34-114 | .298 | .382 | .908 | .228 | 47.62% |
Kyle vs Kyle and only one Kyle can survive!
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u)
Luis Arraez (SD) vs. Luis L. Ortiz [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
133-381 | .349 | .362 | .840 | .100 | 28.23% |
And now we have Luis vs. Luis! This is really only for the singles and hits markets, but fair warning Arraez’s lines for those are often heavily juiced. Likely just as a parlay piece.
TARGET MARKETS: singles (0.75u), hit parlays
That’s all for today … let’s go get some GREEN!