The Six Million Dollar Day
OK … I’m not sure where the hell I’m even going with this, other than the fact that we need to just go out and win $6 million today. You in? I AM!!!
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Today is the legendary Lee Majors’ birthday. For anybody under the age of 80, he was known as “The Six Million Dollar Man,” a show in the 70’s that was best known for excessive slow motion running. He turns 86 today and OF COURSE he’s still living … cuz his body was built by SCIENCE!!!!
OK … I’m not sure where the hell I’m even going with this, other than the fact that we need to just go out and win $6 million today. You in? I AM!!! Another large list today. Several day games, so be sure to check lineups!
Let’s jump into the plays for Wednesday, April 2rd. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Luis Ortiz [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19-47 | .404 | .507 | 1.296 | .255 | 59.46% |
Batting a solid .391 this week as well, but with only one dinger. So my un-scientific opinion is it’s time to ALL RISE for another one!
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R will likely be worthless, hopefully TB/HR isn’t too bad (1u TB, 0.3-0.5u HR), hit parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more
Marcel Ozuna (ATL) vs. Miles Mikolas [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14-40 | .350 | .475 | 1.214 | .300 | 59.26% |
Picking on Miles Mikolas has worked well so far this year, so we’re gonna keep doing that. Ozuna is also 5-13 (.385) with 2 HR off him as well.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u-0.5u), hit parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Monday, April 21 …
❓ Alex Bregman: 1-2, run … kinda needed TB
❓ Fernando Tatis: 1-5, RBI, run … similar here
❌ Elly De La Cruz: 1-4
❌ Pete Alonso: 1-4
✅ Marcel Ozuna: 2-3
✅ Jasson Dominguez: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, run
Dominguez pretty much saved the day. Just missed a huge day by a couple bad luck bounces.
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Gunnar Henderson / Cedric Williams (BAL) vs. Trevor Williams [GRADE: A- (Gunnar), B/B+ (Cedric)]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-23 | .348 | .395 | .913 | .217 | 94.44% |
Both are having a solid week. Above numbers are for Gunnar, which also came with an average exit velo of 105 (hence the INSANE 94.44 Hard Hit %). Both are in play.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u Gunnar, up to 0.75 Ced), HR (0.3u), hit parlays (Gunnar)
Oneil Cruz (PIT) vs. Jack Kochanowicz [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-21 | .333 | 566 | 1.522 | .667 | 75% |
Kochanowicz has been terrible this year, and he doesn’t strike anybody out even when he’s pitching well, so that means lots of balls in play. Cruz averaging a solid 100.8 exit velo against the mix as well. Hopefully the H+R+R is -125 or better and we can consider it.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays
Gavin Sheets (SD) vs. Reese Olson [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9-28 | .321 | .402 | .971 | .259 | 59.09% |
Sheets is having a great season so far and matches up well with Olson. So Fernando Tatis also came up on the list, but he’s also been underwhelming the past couple days, not to mention that his odds were terrible last night in regards to juice. If there’s any decent markets I may sprinkle on Tatis as well, but we will see
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB … hoping for a decent H+R+R to maybe do 0.6u on that and 0.3u on TB, HR (0.25u)
Matt Olson (ATL) vs. Miles Mikolas [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9-35 | .257 | .369 | .886 | .257 | 65.52 |
This goes back to the “Miles Mikolas Sucks” theory (I know … so very scientific of me). The average is low but the power numbers are high. I’ll be looking for TB/HR here
TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.5-0.6u), HR (0.25u)
Jasson Dominguez / Trent Grisham (NYY) [GRADE: B/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9-19 | .474 | .547 | 1.368 | .263 | 53.33% |
Dominguez numbers are above and he delivered for us already this week, so we can ride that train again or try the equally hot Trent Grisham. I’ll probably throw 0.5u on each and a HR fleir. Also worth noting that Paul Goldschmidt is 5-7 off Ortiz.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u), HR (0.2u)
Spencer Torkelson (DET) vs. Kyle Hart [GRADE: B/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5-17 | .294 | .455 | 1.206 | .255 | 59.46% |
Tork has been hitting lefties well this season and the numbers agree.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u-0.6u), HR (0.2u)
Tyler Soderstrom / Lawrence Butler (ATH) vs. Kumar Rocker [GRADE: B/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-31 | .355 | .517 | 1.341 | .419 | 66.67% |
Rocker has had issues with lefties this season and both players have solid numbers against the mix. Butler has been a little bit hotter this week, but both are pretty even and in play.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u-0.75u), HR (0.2u)
💣💣 PlunderSHOT of the Day 💣💣
Dylan Moore (SEA)) vs. Sean Newcomb [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-9 | .444 | .795 | 1.778 | .778 | 44.44% |
Moore is WAY better against lefties and is super streaky and happens to be swinging a hot bat this week (.385 avg and 3 HR). I’ll bite
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u-0.6u), HR (0.2-0.3u)
Wanted to mention there were a couple other players who showed up on the list, but I also don’t want to just spew out 4 million players a day. Plus a couple of these guys are either cold this week or keep burning me so I don’t know WTF to do with them … Brendan Donovan (STL), Austin Hays (CIN), Elly (CIN), and James Wood (WSH).
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!