The Parade of Weirdoes
Oddball day of picks today. Short slate of games and a few of them have very solid pitchers going, so just a smattering of picks today. It’s also a getaway day so lineups could be funky as well.
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Oddball day of picks today. Short slate of games and a few of them have very solid pitchers going, so just a smattering of picks today. It’s also a getaway day so lineups could be funky as well.
Let’s jump into the plays for Thursday, April 24th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Bobby Witt (KC) vs. Chase Dollander [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-25 | .320 | .395 | .964 | .200 | 52.36% |
Witt has been a little quiet the last few days, so maybe his lines won’t be ridiculous (not holding my breath). Lines will dictate how in depth I wanna get on Witt.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (up to 1u), HR (0.3-0.5u with promos and boosts), hit parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more
William Contreras (MIL) vs. Landen Roupp [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3-10 | .300 | .415 | 1.044 | .300 | 55.56% |
Very small sample size, but Contreras is also 3-4 off Roupp in his career. All singles though, so ideally I’d like the H+R+R market or might just do some kind of parlay play with Witt if I can’t get anything I like on either guy.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (1u), HR (0.3u-0.5u), hit parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Tuesday, April 22 …
✅ Pavin Smith: 2-3, HR, 2 RBI, 2 runs
✅ Josh Naylor: 2-4, RBI
✅ Corbin Carroll: 1-3, double, 2 runs
❌ Austin Hays: 0-3
❌ Fernando Tatis: 1-4
✅ Nathaniel Lowe: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, run
✅ Steven Kwan: 2-4, run
❌ Xavier Edwards: 1-4
✅ Maikel Garcia: 2-4
❌ Bo Bichette: 0-4
❌ George Springer: 0-3 … actually faded them both because of volume but wish I had just left them off the list entirely
❌ Gavin Lux: 1-3
❌ Sal Frelick: 0-4, run … team scores 11 and he somehow goes 0-4
✅ Brent Rooker: 2-4, HR, RBI, 2 runs
❌ Shea Langeliers: 1-5
Decent day in the green thanks to a couple big performances. Nothing extraordinary, but we like green days.
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Jackson Chourio (MIL) vs. Landen Roupp [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-23 | .348 | .395 | .913 | .217 | 94.44% |
The April numbers are there, but worth noting that Chourio has been pretty cold this past week. Maybe he’s “due” if that’s actually a thing.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5-0.6u), HR (0.25u)
Nolan Schaunel (LAA) vs. Carmen Mlodzinski [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14-42 | .333 | .390 | .950 | .167 | 28.57 |
You know it’s a weird day when we’re already scraping up guys like Schaunel (or Beni when you keep scrolling). Mlodzinski stinks, but then again so do the Angels.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5), HR (0.2u)
Andrew Benintendi (CWS) vs. Chris Paddack [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-23 | .348 | .476 | 1.148 | .391 | 47.62% |
Yup … this is what we’ve stooped to. Numbers for the month are decent, but he’s also been cold this week.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5u), HR (0.2u)
💣💣 PlunderSHOT of the Day 💣💣
Dylan Crews (WSH) vs. Cade Povich [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-22 | .318 | .439 | 1.082 | .364 | 31.58% |
Above numbers are actually from last season, but still a small sample. He’s been having a good week and Povich has been bad this year, so I’ll at least put some action in.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u), HR (0.2)
That’s all for this very odd looking day … Let’s go get some GREEN!