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July 11, 2025

The (Not Jerry) Springer Show

Jerry, Jerry, Jerry!

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Jerry, Jerry, Jerry!

Let’s dive into the plays for Friday, July 11th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

  • George Springer / Alejandro Kirk (TOR) vs. Luis Severino [GRADE: A]

H/AB

AVG

wOBA

ISO

ExitVelo

HardHit%

17-40

.425

.488

.400

93.4

55.26%

Severino has been one of my favorites to pick on this month and we get him in the toy box ballpark to book.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u-0.5u)

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more

  • Brandon Nimmo / Juan Soto (NYM) vs. Michael Wacha [GRADE: A-]

H/AB

AVG

wOBA

ISO

ExitVelo

HardHit%

17-39

.436

.516

.410

93.3

61.29%

After three days of Juan puns I figured it was time to give somebody else some attention, but the plays are still strong.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u)


OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

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