Suck it Garfield, You're Gonna LOVE This Monday
Ahhh Garfield … I thought he was hilarious when I was a kid. Then I turned 9 and realized he was just a prick cat that didn’t even deserve the life he had.
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Ahhh Garfield … I thought he was hilarious when I was a kid. Then I turned 9 and realized he was just a prick cat that didn’t even deserve the life he had. So FU Garfield, you lasagna-eating jerkface! We gonna have ourselves an AWESOME Monday!
Let’s jump into the plays for Monday, April 28th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Tomoyuki Sugano [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24-49 | .490 | .590 | 1.525 | .306 | 598.97% |
Yep … Judge again. But he crushing the ball and Sugano is pretty terrible. Above numbers are from the last 21 days against the 4 seam/cutter/sinker mix.
TARGET MARKETS: TB/H+R+R (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u with promos and boosts), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more
Francisco Linder (NYM) vs. Trevor Williams [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-24 | .333 | .410 | 1.000 | .167 | 52.36% |
Williams has lots of issues with lefties and Lindor happens to be one of those who also happens to be batting .458 this past week. I’d prefer H+R+R but we will have to see what the odds look like. Numbers are from the last 14 days.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (up to 1u), HR (0.3u-0.5u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Saturday, April 26 …
✅ Kyle Schwarber: 1-4, double, 2 RBI, run
✅ JT Realmuto: 1-5, run
✅ Nick Castellanos: 2-5, run
✅ Oneil Cruz: 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, run
✅ Marcell Ozuna: 2-4, HR, RBI, run
✅ Fernando Tatis: 2-4, RBI
❌ Tyler Soderstrom: 0-3
✅ Steven Kwan: 2-4, RBI, run
❌ Kyle Manzardo: 0-4
❌ Jarren Duran: 0-4
❌ Jonah Heim: 1-4
✅ Wyatt Langford: 1-4, double, run
A very solid day!
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Spencer Torkelson (DET) vs. Dean Kremer [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9-23 | .391 | .460 | 1.087 | .261 | 40% |
Freeman has been decent the past 7 days, but nothing ridiculous so that’s why I gave it a B+. Numbers are from the last 21. Hard Hit is a little down but the rest is solid.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75-1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Steven Kwan (CLE) vs. Bailey Ober [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-19 | .421 | .536 | 1.368 | .316 | 16.67% |
Kwan just keeps rolling.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R if we can get it (1u), HR (0.2u flier), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Andre Pallante [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-23 | .348 | .414 | 1.000 | .174 | 64.29% |
Ideally we want H+R+R here, so hopefully we get a good price.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.75-1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Trent Grishman (NYY) vs. Tomoyuki Sugano [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5-15 | .333 | .572 | 1.400 | .667 | 52.85% |
No clue if he will actually get the start but these are his season numbers against the 4 seam/curve/splitter/sinker mix Sugano throws to lefties.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u), HR (0.25u)
Zach McKinstry (DET) vs. Ronel Blanco [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-31 | .323 | .385 | .936 | .129 | 30.43% |
There’s no power here, but Blanco has issues with lefties and McKinstry is batting .444 this week. Ideally I’d want to offer up Kerry Carpenter but he’s ice cold right now.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.6u)
💣💣 PlunderSHOT of the Day 💣💣
Noelvi Marte (CIN) vs. Andre Pallante [GRADE: B/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-21 | .333 | .459 | 1.095 | .381 | 19.05% |
The Hard Hit is a little concerning, but he’s on fire this week and matches up well with the 4 seam/sinker/slider mix of Pallante.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u-0.6u), HR (0.25u)
✅ BONUS PITCHING PLAYS ✅
As a little something extra, I’d go ahead and suggest checking out the under K markets of Griffin Canning, Bailey Ober and Nick Martinez. All have really tough matchups of teams that strike out very little against the pitches they throw. Often what I will do is what I call “The Underlay” and take the under of the highest alt K line offered for each player. So that’s what I’ll be looking to do today with those three. Enjoy!
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!