So Far, So Good
Happy Easter! Figured today is as good a day as any to look at where we are so far.
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Happy Easter! Figured today is as good a day as any to look at where we are so far. As you can see, we are in pretty damn good shape three weeks in to this adventure. Digging a little deeper, I can say that all of our gains for the month were basically in the last week, but honestly that’s how successful baseball betting happens.
You tread water most of the time and then have a few breakout banger days a month for the gains. We’re basically always just trying to take enough chances, minimize our losses, and reaping the benefits of when we get hot. Soooo … keep up the good work!
Quick reminder: This is a Sunday so always check lineups!
Let’s jump into the plays for Sunday, April 20th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Kerry Carpenter (DET) vs. Michael Wacha [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-21 | .333 | .40 | .915 | .190 | 58.82% |
Carpenter has gotten hot again and Wacha has had a rocky start to the season. The ISO and Barrel rates aren’t entirely where we want them to be, but enough of the pieces come together to feel good.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u with promos and boosts), hit parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more
Alex Bregman (BOS) vs. Sean Burke [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16-42 | .381 | .494 | 1.184 | .381 | 51.43% |
Is it just me, or does it feel like the Red Sox and White Sox have already played each other 17 times this season?
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Friday, April 18 …
❌ Austin Riley: 0-4
✅ Ozzie Albies: 2-3, RBI, run
✅ Josh Naylor: 2-4, 2 runs
❌ Pavin Smith: 1-2 … got pinch hit for right before the offensive insanity happened
✅ Corbin Carroll: 2-6, RBI
✅ Pete Crow-Armstrong: 2-4, 3 runs
❌ Dansby Swanson: 1-5
✅ Oneil Cruz: 1-4, HR, RBI, 2 runs
✅ Pete Alonso: 1-2, triple
❌ Trea Turner: 0-3, run
Somehow missed out on all the HRs hit in Chicago to pretty much end up even for the day. Dammit!
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Charlie Morton [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6-19 | .316 | .421 | 1.053 | .211 | 58.33% |
Morton is primarily a 4 seam/changeup guy and Elly has done well so far this season against it. Ideally looking for H+R+R market here.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u-1u), HR (0.25u)
Ryan O’Hearn (BAL) vs. Carson Spiers [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-28 | .357 | .452 | 1.126 | .250 | 45.83% |
O’Hearn has been hot this week and matches well with the 4 seam/change/cutter/sweeper mix of Spiers. Hard Hit% not elite, but close enough. Is someone who can get pinch hit for late in games for what it’s worth.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u), HR (0.25)
Nick Castellanos (PHI) vs. Connor Gillispie [GRADE: B/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6-17 | .353 | .423 | 1.055 | .235 | 46.67% |
Picking on Gillispie has paid off so far this season, so we shall continue to try to do that.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u), HR (0.25u)
Steven Kwan (CLE) vs. Mitch Keller [GRADE: B/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9-23 | .391 | .496 | 1.261 | .261 | 22.73% |
Kwan screwed us the other night, but then right back to hitting the ball well again the next game. His ISO number is actually halfway decent, so I may throw a free bet/couple bucks on his HR for the heck of it.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.75u … probably too juicy and just for a parlay), HR (0.2u lotto), hit parlays, singles
Jackson Chourio (MIL) vs. Jeffrey Springs [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-23 | .348 | .496 | 1.174 | .478 | 47.06% |
Springs has been hit or miss this season and Chourio matches well with the 4 seam/changeup/splitter combo. Worth noting Chourio has been cold this week, so going lighter here.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u), HR (0.25u)
Kyle Farmer (COL) vs. Jake Irvin [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-25 | .480 | .512 | 1.239 | .240 | 43.48% |
Farmer has been hot this week. Speaking of “not hot” the weather in Colorado has sucked the past couple days so be sure to check that first. They also have a doubleheader so lineups need to be confirmed as well.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5-0.6u), HR (0.2u)
💣💣 PlunderSHOT of the Day 💣💣
Joey Bart (PIT) vs. Logan Allen [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3-7 | .429 | .571 | 1.429 | .429 | 20% |
You’ll need to check to see if he’s even playing, but he’s my “what the hell?” longshot of the day. Let’s GO!!!! Side note: Kyren Paris (LAA) was also in my maybe pile for the longshot, but has been cold this week. Just putting that out there for a “told you so!” recall later if need be.
TARGET MARKETS: TB/H+R+R (0.5u), HR (0.2u)
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!