Saturday Shenanigans
Excited about my top picks for Saturday, including Bryce Harper and Vlad Guerrero!
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As we wrap up another week of data collection, we get even closer to our optimum levels. Having picks like Ty France and Kyle Manzardo pay off on Thursday (see results below) make me VERY optimistic about the coming weeks and months of the season. So happy to have you on the journey!
Let’s jump into the plays for Saturday, April 12th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Bryce Harper (PHI) vs. Miles Mikolas [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-13 | .308 | .499 | 1.385 | .385 | 63.64% |
Harper is also 8-23 (.348 avg) in his career against Mikolas with two HRs. Alec Bohm is batting .500 off Mikolas in his career but has been cold as ice this past week. Trea Turner has decent numbers against Mikolas as well and could warrant a sprinkle, but Harper is my top selection.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u for boosts), hit parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.
Vlad Guerrero (TOR) vs. Cade Povich [GRADE: A-/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16-52 | .308 | .383 | .904 | .154 | 62.79% |
Above numbers are 2024 against lefties with a similar pitch profile to Povich. ISO is kinda low, so singles come into play as well.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.75-1u), HR (0.25), hit parlays, singles (0.75u)
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Thursday, April 10 …
✅ Alex Bregman: 1-4, RBI
✅ Rafael Devers: 2-5
✅ Bobby Witt: 2-3, double, run, RBI
✅ Sal Perez: 1-4, RBI
✅ Kyle Manzardo: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, run
✅ Ty France: 1-4, HR, run, RBI
❌ Brandon Lowe: 1-4 … this dude is wearing me out
Really solid day … Especially France and Manzardo coming thru at longer odds.
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Spencer Torkelson (DET) vs. Chris Paddack [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-15 | .533 | .732 | 1.867 | .667 | 63.64% |
OK … now we get our Paddack/Torkelson matchup a day later. Paddack has been terrible this year and Torkelson is crushing the pitch mix so far. H+R+R would be ideal here.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.75u), HR (0.2), hit parlays
Brenton Doyle (COL) vs. Kyle Hart [GRADE: B+/A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5-9 | .556 | .529 | 1.333 | .000 | 22.22% |
I’m not 100% sure Hart is starting, but he’s listed in a couple places. Doyle is solid against lefties and swinging a hot bat this week. The power and hard hit numbers are bad here, but it’s also a super small sample. Ideally want H+R+R
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (up 0.75u), HR (0.2u lotto)
Jose Altuve (HOU) vs. Tyler Anderson [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
39-114 | .342 | .385 | .904 | .158 | 37.76% |
Altuve historically hits lefties well and has been hot this week. Above numbers are 2024 and you can see the power totals are off, so temper your bankroll. I’d ideally want H+R+R, but the juice may be prohibitive. Might just be a hit parlay piece and a TB sprinkle.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u), HR (0.2 lotto), hit parlays
Griffin Conine (MIA) vs. Trevor Williams [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-14 | .500 | .460 | 1.071 | .000 | 53.85% |
Solid numbers so far against the mix for 2025, but worth noting that I would’ve graded him higher were it not for the fact that he’s been a little cold the last 7 days. Worth a sprinkle but nothing crazy.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5u), HR (0.2 lotto)
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!