Pirate Road Trip!
Morning all! Your boy Plunder has to hit the road for a few days for work, but there’s two pieces of good news attached to that …
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Morning all! Your boy Plunder has to hit the road for a few days for work, but there’s two pieces of good news attached to that …
1) “Work” consists of having to eat and drink my way through Savannah, GA and Greenville, SC. (Suffering, I know)
2) Pitch Mix Plays will be produced daily as normal.
The only “bad” news is there ain’t no sportsbook action in South Carolina, so I won’t be posting any specific plays in the Discord over the weekend, but I think we’re all getting the hang of this setup and I have no doubt you’ll be able to get your winners together.
Let’s jump into the plays for Wednesday, April 9th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
NOTE: Weather been wonky in many cities this week (not quite as bad today though), so be sure to check the forecast as well as any changes in probable pitchers.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Fernando Tatis (SD) vs. Oswaldo Bido [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-18 | .389 | .471 | 1.199 | .222 | 53.33% |
Tatis has been swinging well to start the season and the glorified minor league ballpark the A’s are playing in has proven so far to be hitter friendly. Above numbers are for 2025 vs. the 4-seam/slider mix, which Tatis was strong in 2024 as well. H+R+R is likely juicy but maybe we get lucky and it’s -130 or better and we can play around with it.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.
Shohei Ohtani and all his buddies (LAD) vs. Jake Irvin [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
47-148 | .318 | .481 | 1.219 | .385 | 59.29% |
I’m listing Ohtani as the top pick of the bunch because Irvin was worse against lefties in 2024 and Ohtani’s stats above are against the 4-seam/curve mix that Irvin leans on. He’s also 3-6 against him in his career. I also think Mookie Betts and Will Smith are in play again too, particularly because Mookie is batting .444 off Irvin and Smith is hitting .333 off him. Ohtani is the play if you only want one, but all three are available. (Not to mention the fact they all owe us for laying an egg last night!)
TARGET MARKETS: TB (1u), HR (0.3), hit parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Monday, April 7 …
✅ Shohei Ohtani: 3-4, HR, triple 2 RBI, run
😒 Bryan Reynolds: DNP
❌ Aaron Judge: 1-3, RBI … not good enough!
✅ Juan Soto: 2-3, double, RBI
✅ Pete Alonso: 2-4, double
Judge driving me crazy the past few days but all in all a GREEN day!
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Jose Ramirez (CLE) vs. Sean Burke [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-8 | .500 | .739 | 1.917 | .750 | 71.43% |
Cold again in Cleveland today, though not quite as horrible as yesterday so maybe the teams will score more than one total run. That said, no need to go crazy with unit sizing either. Gaudy numbers for Ramirez so far in a very small 2025 sample.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (up to 0.75u), HR (0.25u), hit parlays
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) vs. Kevin Gausman [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6-10 | .600 | .721 | 2.000 | .500 | 77.78% |
Abreu has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball in 2025, so we gotta work him in to the Pitch Mix Picks dagnabbit! Side note: Raffy Devers and Jarren Duran both have solid BvP numbers against Gausman as well, so you could consider a sprinkle, but Abreu is the first choice.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u), HR (0.25u), hit parlays
Brendan Donovan / Lars Nootbar (STL) vs. Mitch Keller [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6-15 | .400 | .488 | 1.200 | .267 | 53.33% |
Above numbers are for Donovan, who has fared well against the 4-seam, slider, sweeper mix that Keller brings. Nootbar has a .533 average vs. the mix this season though also worth noting he’s cooled off a little the past week and the ISO numbers were very low (.067). Donovan been hitting the ball great this week so he’d be my first choice, but I think both are in consideration. Worth noting that Nootbar is .400 in his career of Keller (Donovan .222)
TARGET MARKETS: TB/H+R+R (0.5u-0.75u), HR (0.2), singles (for Nootbar, 0.5u).
Josh Naylor (ARI) vs. Dean Kremer [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
48-173 | .277 | .375 | .892 | .243 | 46.94% |
Decent numbers against the pitch mix and is also 4-7 off Kremer in his career. Been swinging the bat well this week too.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u-0.75u), HR (0.25)
Sal Frelick (MIL) vs. Antonio Senzatela [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5-8 | .625 | .646 | 1.500 | .250 | 85.71% |
Frelick is batting .378 on the season but not a big power guy, so we’re looking H+R+R and single markets here.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5u-0.75u), singles (0.5u), hit parlays
Matt Chapman (SF) vs. Nick Martinez [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5-10 | .500 | .611 | 1.567 | .400 | 30% |
I don’t love the HardHit% but everything else looks good. Worth noting that Campbell as a whole is only batting .257 on the year so we aren’t going crazy here.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u), HR (0.2u)
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!