Patriots Day in Plunderville
It’s the holiday that isn’t actually a holiday except in Boston and Maine, but if you’re a Massachusetts native like me you know it’s all about 11am baseball and lunatics running 26 miles outside the stadium.
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It’s the holiday that isn’t actually a holiday except in Boston and Maine, but if you’re a Massachusetts native like me you know it’s all about 11am baseball and lunatics running 26 miles outside the stadium. Happy Patriots Day all!
Let’s jump into the plays for Monday, April 21st. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Alex Bregman (BOS) vs. Jonathan Cannon [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14-35 | .400 | .472 | 1.090 | .257 | 45.16% |
Well you gotta have a Sox player on the list on Patriots Day … let’s go!
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u with promos and boosts), hit parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more
Fernando Tatis (SD) vs. Jack Flaherty [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-30 | .367 | .517 | 1.300 | .433 | 53.85% |
I don’t like to out TOO much stock in BvP, but it’s also hard to ignore that Tatis is 7-10 off Flaherty. Flaherty has been decent this season but I’m gonna lean on history.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Saturday, April 19 …
✅ Bryce Harper: 1-4, RBI, run
❌ Pavin Smith: 0-2
✅ Corbin Carroll: 3-4, HR, RBI, run
❌ Lawrence Butler: 1-4
❌ Corey Seager: 0-3
❌ Kameron Misner: 0-4, run … Rays score 10 runs and he doesn’t even get a damn hit
❌ George Springer: 0-5
Gross. Bit of a shit sandwich kinda day.
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Max Meyer [GRADE: B+/A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9-30 | .300 | .421 | 1.033 | .300 | 66.67% |
Elly makes the list again today ater delivering yesterday as well.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u-1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays
Marcel Ozuna (ATL) vs. Erick Fedde [GRADE: B+/A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5-12 | .417 | .540 | 1.417 | .333 | 50% |
Looking for a little Fedde Wap here today. (I’m hilarious!)
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u), HR (0.25)
Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Aaron Nola [GRADE: B+/A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-27 | .407 | .595 | 1.593 | .519 | 57.14% |
Nola has had a rocky start to 2025 and Alonso also has strong career numbers against him (.327 avg and 6 HR).
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u-1u), HR (0.3u)
💣💣 PlunderSHOT of the Day 💣💣
Jasson Dominguez (NYY) vs. Gavin Williams [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-8 | .500 | .492 | 1.125 | .125 | 71.43% |
Ben Rice showed up as a potential as well if you wanna check his odds, but we’re gonna give Jasson the PlunderSHOT of the Day nod. ISO kinda sucks but we’re talking about 8 ABs here. I’m probably looking for H+R+R and a HR lotto.
TARGET MARKETS: TB/H+R+R (0.5u), HR (0.2u)
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!