Painting the Chalk
A fairly chalky day here for the Pitch Mix Plays, but we just go by what the numbers tell us.
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A fairly chalky day here for the Pitch Mix Plays, but we just go by what the numbers tell us. So let’s have chalk flying all over the place like naughty kids in the 80’s who made to go out back and pound clean the erasers! (I’m older than you)
Let’s jump into the plays for Saturday, April 19th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Bryce Harper (PHI) vs. Cal Quantrill [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20-50 | .400 | .523 | 1.300 | .400 | 51.11% |
A warm day in Philly with Cal Quantrill on the mound? Yes please. You could consider other Phillies but Bryce is really the one that stands out. Above numbers for Harper are actually 2024 against the splitter and cutter, which is pretty much all Quantrill throws to lefties.
TARGET MARKETS: TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u with promos and boosts), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more
Pavin Smith / Corbin Carroll (ARI) vs. Ben Brown [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-11 | .636 | .756 | 2.182 | .545 | 55.56% |
The sick numbers above are for Smith, but Carroll’s are equally as ridiculous. Both in play. Might be able to get Smith H+R+R but Carroll will have to be for parlays for that market.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (Smith maybe)/TB (1u), HR (0.25-0.5u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Thursday, April 17 …
✅ Kyle Schwarber: 2-3, 2 RBI, run
✅ Griffin Conine: 1-4, double, run
✅ Tyler Soderstrom: 1-5, HR, RBI, run
❌ Steven Kwan: 1-4
❌ Gabriel Arias: 0-4
✅ Oneil Cruz: 1-3, HR, RBI, run
✅ Eric Wagaman: 1-3, double, RBI, run
✅ Gavin Lux: 2-4, run
✅ Elly De La Cruz: 2-4, run
❌ Bryce Harper: 0-2, 2 runs
Solid rebound!
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Lawrence Butler (ATH) vs. Chad Patrick [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-25 | .389 | .493 | 1.250 | .278 | 58.06% |
Butler is on fire this week and any time I can bet against a guy named Chad, I’m here for it. Soderstrom numbers were there too so you could consider him, but I’m leaning Butler today.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u-1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays
Corey Seager (TEX) vs. Roki Sasaki [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-20 | .400 | .441 | 1.050 | .600 | 50% |
Sasaki has yet to be dominant and Seager has been lava hot the past few days.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u-1u), HR (0.3), hit parlays
Kameron Misner (TB) vs. Carlos Carrasco [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13-25 | .520 | .573 | 1.466 | 0.360 | 59.09% |
You know me … I’m always looking for ways to bet against Carlos Carrasco. Misner matches up very well against the mix and continues to stay hot.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays
💣💣 PlunderSHOT of the Day 💣💣
George Springer (TOR) vs. Luis Castillo [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-23 | .435 | .493 | 1.194 | .217 | 76.47% |
Springer is just back from a minor injury so he’s a little under the radar. Castillo has not been good this season.
TARGET MARKETS: TB/H+R+R (0.5u), HR (0.25u)
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!