No Sunday Scaries Here!
Who’s ready for another Sunday of trying to figure out who’s actually gonna play and who ain’t? We are!
Quick reminder: This email goes out every morning by 8a (eastern). If you don’t have it by then, something is going on with the service. If anything looks weird on your end, please email me directly at plundertheunder@gmail.com
Who’s ready for another Sunday of trying to figure out who’s actually gonna play and who ain’t? We are!
But seriously … Sunday is it’s own beast so always make sure to check lineups before making any wagers (or at least make them on sites like MGM and B365 that offer starter insurance).
Let’s jump into the plays for Sunday, April 13th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Manny Machado/Fernando Tatis (SD) vs. Kyle Freeland [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-13 | .308 | .499 | 1.385 | .385 | 63.64% |
Machado came up first on the list, but Tatis is definitely on a heater right now so he’s absolutely in play. Tatis is also dealing with a sore shoulder, so certainly make sure he’s in the lineup before using him for anything.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u for boosts), hit parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.
Nick Castellanos (PHI) vs. Michael Liberatore [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-10 | .400 | .576 | 1.5 | 0.500 | 70% |
Castellanos against a lefty is always worth consideration. He’s had a decent week at the plate as well.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.75-1u), HR (0.25), hit parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Friday, April 11 …
❓ Jackson Chourio: 1-5, run … H+R+R hits but no bases
❌ Rafael Devers: 0-2
✅ James Wood: 2-5, HR, double, RBI, run
❌ Corbin Carroll: 1-4
❌ Aaron Judge: 0-1, 2 BB
❌ Spencer Torkelson: 0-3, run
❌ Lawrence Butler: 0-3, run
Not enough firepower for the day. Wood at least keeps us from a disaster.
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Luis Severino [GRADE: B+/A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-20 | .400 | .574 | 1.45 | .500 | 68.75% |
The Polar Bear has looked strong this year. Severino is very much a hit or miss guy but he’s been touched up for 5 runs in each of his last two starts.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u), HR (0.25), hit parlays (maybe)
Vlad Guerrero (TOR) vs. Cade Povich [GRADE: A-/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16-52 | .308 | .383 | .904 | .154 | 62.79% |
This one was in the email yesterday, but Povich got bumped a day so we roll it back again. Above numbers are 2024 against lefties with a similar pitch profile to Povich. ISO is kinda low, so singles come into play as well.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.75-1u), HR (0.25), hit parlays, singles (0.75u)
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Carmen Mlodzinski [GRADE: B+/A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-21 | .381 | .499 | 1.19 | .381 | 71.43% |
The books keep giving us value on Elly, so let’s keep taking it against a mediocre Pirates pitcher
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (up 0.75u), HR (0.2u lotto)
Bobby Witt (KC) vs. Ben Lively [GRADE: B/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5-18 | .278 | .371 | .889 | .222 | 92.31% |
Numbers are good, but not great. Though “small sample size” is still the prevailing saying more most everything we do until we get to may. His H+R+R is almost always 2.5 and TB is juicy. Could also just consider for a hit parlay.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u), HR (0.25), hit parlays
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) vs. Michael Liberatore [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-14 | .500 | .724 | 1.964 | .714 | 58.33% |
Little bit of an odd one here since its lefty vs. lefty, but those above numbers are for Schwarber against lefties in 2025, so there’s that. Worth noting he’s 0-6 in his career against Liberatore, so nothing crazy here.
TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.5u), HR (0.25)
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!