Monday Picks and Analysis So Far
As we get ready to kick off a new week I figured it would be a good time to look at the season so far.
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As we get ready to kick off a new week I figured it would be a good time to look at the season so far.
The graphic above represents all the wagers I have personally played based on the Pitch Mix Picks (both free and premium) since the start of the season. As you can see, we are pretty much exactly at break even and (to me) that’s a good thing.
Yes … being up a kabillion dollars would be amazing, but April brings the significant learning curve that we’ve discussed before. That’s something you can see in the chart where things have gone up and down and up and down over and over again. We have yet to hit our stride, but these results show us that the process is sound. We just need to get our consistent data for our plays.
Let’s jump into the plays for Monday, April 7th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs. Trevor Williams [GRADE: A/A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60-199 | .302 | .393 | .930 | .337 | 53.55% |
Sometimes ya gotta make room for 🐐ani to hopefully do his thing. 2-3 off Williams in a very small sample for what it’s worth.
TARGET MARKETS: TB (1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) vs. Matthew Liberatore [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
37-111 | .333 | .393 | .930 | .198 | 55.95% |
Reynolds has yet to really deliver in the times we’ve mentioned him this season, but this is definitely a solid spot where the numbers are good and he’s also 4-9 with a HR off Liberatore in his career. The ISO is not great but everything else is there.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75-1u), HR (0.25)
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Saturday, April 5 …
❌ Aaron Judge: 1-4, 2 runs … not counting this a win since TB didn’t hit (though I did personally sprinkle the singles market)
✅ Elly De La Cruz: 1-4, 2 RBU, run
✅ Vlad Guerrero: 2-5, RBI
😒 Matt McLain: DNP
✅ Bobby Witt: 1-4, HR, run, RBI
❌ Marcell Ozuna: 0-4
❌ Matt Olson: 1-3 … these two Braves clowns were lousy
🌧️ Lars Nootbar / Ivan Herrera: PPD
😒 Tommy Pham: DNS
Braves bats dragged us down and kept things relatively breakeven.
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Casey Mize [GRADE: A-/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
115-350 | .329 | .470 | 1.173 | .337 | 60.55% |
Was swinging a hot bat, then cools off as soon as we pick him a couples days in a row. C’mon your honor!!!
TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.75-1u), HR (0.3), singles (0.3u), hit parlays
Juan Soto or Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. TBD [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70-221 | .317 | .479 | 1.255 | .362 | 65.73% |
Mannnn … probably pitching changes are messing with me today. This was originally supposed to be against Connor Gillispie, who got moved to Tuesday (so plan on seeing this again tomorrow. Now it’s TBD “spot starter” tomorrow for Miami, so we could easily look at Soto, but also Alonso is in play depending on the handedness of the pitcher.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u-0.75u), HR (0.2), hit parlays (Soto)
That’s all for today, I had more but pitchers got moved around and I didn’t want to force picks just for the sake of volume. That said, it looks like a really solid crop of plays to go after and there’s a much longer list on tap tomorrow … Let’s go get some GREEN!