Marcel Ozuna Hates Me
In the world of sports betting, sometimes it just feels like certain guys hate your stupid face.
Quick reminder: This email goes out every morning by 8a (eastern). If you don’t have it by then, something is going on with the service. If anything looks weird on your end, please email me directly at plundertheunder@gmail.com
In the world of sports betting, sometimes it just feels like certain guys hate your stupid face. Whenever you play them, they suck. Whenever you fade them, they go off. My all time devil player from any sport is NBA’s Big Ol’ Jerkface Buddy Hield (that’s his full legal name BTW).
In baseball I’m starting to think it’s Marcell Ozuna. Guy is a beast every night, till your boy Plunder dials him up for a pick or two. Then he decides to lay a nice big fat goose egg. That said, if I took every bet personally I never would’ve lasted this long in this game. (I try to only take 72% of them personally)
Let’s jump into the plays for Wednesday, April 30th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Paul Goldschmidt / Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Cade Povich [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-18 | .667 | .678 | 1.667 | .222 | 52.25% |
I mean it’s real easy to pick a couple guys from a team that just scored like 47 runs against the Orioles and now get to face another terrible pitcher. The above ridiculous numbers are for Goldie this year, but Judge is pretty close behind. The real issue here is that the odds are going to be garbage, which was the reason I didn’t list Judge yesterday (whoops).
TARGET MARKETS: TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u with promos and boosts), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) vs. Carmen Mlodzinski [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16-40 | .400 | .480 | 1.138 | .333 | 61.29% |
PCA is hot this week in addition to the 30 days numbers above against the 4 seam/change/slider/sweeper mix of the “mediocre at best” Carmen Mlodzinski. Worth noting that Kyle Tucker’s season numbers were good enough to make the list but he is ICE COLD this week so I can’t fully endorse him. (Of course now I’m gonna get FOMO)
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u-0.5u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Monday, April 28 …
✅ Aaron Judge: 2-5, RBI
❌ Francisco Lindor: 0-3, run … AND THE METS SCORED 19 DAMMIT!!!
✅ Freddie Freeman: 1-3, RBI, run
❌ Steven Kwan: 1-3
✅ Elly De La Cruz: 1-4, double
✅ Trent Grisham: 2-5
✅ Noelvi Marte: 1-2, triple, RBI
✅ Pitching Underlay
Lindor was a killer because I had him in a few plays, but overall a nice day!
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Freddie Freeman / Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs. Cal Quantrill [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-24 | .292 | .367 | .885 | .208 | 36.84% |
This is a weird one because the season long numbers aren’t fully there, but Freeman is batting .533 off Quantrill in his career and IT’S CAL QUANTRILL FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!!! Ohtani is similar though he does feature a nice 60% Hard Hit% and a .333 BvP against ol’ Cal. Both in play.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u-0.5u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Gavin Lux / TJ Friedl (CIN) vs. Miles Mikolas [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13-24 | .542 | .568 | 1.417 | .167 | 47.06% |
THIS IS A RETREAD FROM YESTERDAY’S RAINOUT … Lux continues to mash the ball. Friedl’s numbers are similar and both are in play. Elly is decent over the 30 day tally too but these are my two favorites for the Reds for the day. Mikolas pitched well last outing but he still mostly sucks.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.75-1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays (for Lux in particular)
Christian Yelich (MIL) vs. Shane Smith [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-32 | .313 | .439 | 1.076 | .344 | 61.54% |
As I’m typing this, Yelich is busy screwing us over from his current pick, but I’m going back to the well again. Gotta have a short memory in baseball betting.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75-1u), HR (0.25u)
Michael Harris II (Atl) vs. Chase Dollander [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
17-50 | .340 | .359 | .840 | .160 | 40.48% |
The above numbers are only OK, but Harris is stroking the ball this week and the matchup is a good one. Not going crazy but I’m good with some exposure.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5-0.75u), HR (0.2u lotto if anything), singles (0.5u)
💣💣 PlunderSHOT of the Day 💣💣
Zach Neto (LAA) vs. Emerson Hancock [GRADE: B/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6-18 | .333 | .486 | 1.146 | .444 | 46.67% |
It’s hard to trust any dingleberry on the Angels, but Hancock has been terrible and the numbers are there. Neto is also one of the few Angels players hitting the ball well so we can dabble a little.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5u), HR (0.2u)
✅ BONUS PITCHING PLAYS ✅
My three favorite alt-K under plays of the day …
Rasmussen (TB) … KC a league best 11.7% K rate against the 4 seam/cutter/sinker/sweeper mix
Lopez (MIN) … Cle 3rd best 16.07% K rate against the 4 seam/change/sinker/sweeper mix
Sanchez (PHI) … Wsh 3rd best 12.96% K rate against the change/sinker/slider
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!