Plunder's Pitch Mix Picks

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April 2, 2025

Let's Get Over the Hump (Day)

It’s not ALL the data we want, but today is the first day we get to at least look at a slate of pitchers who have a start under their belt.

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Yeah yeah yeah … we get it

NOTE FOR TOMORROW: Gambling lessons, glossary and strategy guide!

It’s not ALL the data we want, but today is the first day we get to at least look at a slate of pitchers who have a start under their belt. Now we can make total EXPERT opinions like “don’t take a batter against Paul Skenes.”

Amazing! Worth every penny! 😂

POSITIVE OBSERVATIONS: What I’m really happy to see are guys like Brett Baty and Rob Refsnyder showing up in the list and delivering at the plate (see recap below). As we gather more in-season data, this is where the Pitch Mix edge really starts to kick in.

For example … I kept some notes on a couple random things yesterday because they caught my eye, but I simply didn’t have the season data to pull the trigger. These plays were Mark Canha (KC), Kameron Misner (TB), and strikeout unders for Miles Mikolas and Bowder Frances. ALL of those plays ended up coming thru! This is VERY promising for the season as a whole!

Let’s jump into it. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM to get the rest.

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

  • Juan Soto (NYM) vs. Connor Gillespie [GRADE: A]

H/AB

AVG

wOBA

OPS

ISO

HardHit%

70-221

.317

.479

1.255

.362

65.75%

Gillespie was not good in his first start, so here’s hoping he continues to be the crappy pitcher we think he is. Soto is great against the 4-seam, cutter and slider combo as well.

TARGET MARKETS: TB (1u) … could go higher with a boost play HR (0.3-0.5u), hit parlays

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage. Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.

  • Tyler Soderstrom (A’s) vs. Jamison Taillon [GRADE: A-]

H/AB

AVG

wOBA

OPS

ISO

HardHit%

26-88

.295

.416

1.013

.273

63.49%

Tyler has been crushing the ball so far this season and did the same last year against the 4-seam, curve, cutter mix. Personally I think Taillon is cooked this season and just hope it takes a while for the books to notice.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3), hit parlays … H+R+R probably juicy but who knows.

💰 THE RECAP 💰

These are all of our picks from Monday, March 31 …

✅ Kyle Schwarber: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, run … other Phillies not so much with Bohm and Harper going 1-4 and Realmuto 0-4.

✅ Tyler O’Neill: 4-4, double, RBI, 2 runs … Adley was 1-5 with an RBI and Laureano 0-2

✅ Kerry Carpenter: 2-5, double 2 RBI

❌ Juan Soto: 1-4, run

✅ Kyle Tucker: 4-7, HR, 3 RBI, 4 runs … bang!

❌ Yordan Alvarez: 0-4

❌ Corey Seager: 0-2, BB

✅ Brett Baty: 1-4, double

✅ Rob Refsnyder: 2-3, run

😒 Kyle Manzardo: DNS

✅ Luis Arraez: 1-5, single (which is all we needed)

All in all a green day!


OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

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