Let's Get Over the Hump (Day)
It’s not ALL the data we want, but today is the first day we get to at least look at a slate of pitchers who have a start under their belt.
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NOTE FOR TOMORROW: Gambling lessons, glossary and strategy guide!
It’s not ALL the data we want, but today is the first day we get to at least look at a slate of pitchers who have a start under their belt. Now we can make total EXPERT opinions like “don’t take a batter against Paul Skenes.”
Amazing! Worth every penny! 😂
POSITIVE OBSERVATIONS: What I’m really happy to see are guys like Brett Baty and Rob Refsnyder showing up in the list and delivering at the plate (see recap below). As we gather more in-season data, this is where the Pitch Mix edge really starts to kick in.
For example … I kept some notes on a couple random things yesterday because they caught my eye, but I simply didn’t have the season data to pull the trigger. These plays were Mark Canha (KC), Kameron Misner (TB), and strikeout unders for Miles Mikolas and Bowder Frances. ALL of those plays ended up coming thru! This is VERY promising for the season as a whole!
Let’s jump into it. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM to get the rest.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Juan Soto (NYM) vs. Connor Gillespie [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70-221 | .317 | .479 | 1.255 | .362 | 65.75% |
Gillespie was not good in his first start, so here’s hoping he continues to be the crappy pitcher we think he is. Soto is great against the 4-seam, cutter and slider combo as well.
TARGET MARKETS: TB (1u) … could go higher with a boost play HR (0.3-0.5u), hit parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage. Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.
Tyler Soderstrom (A’s) vs. Jamison Taillon [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
26-88 | .295 | .416 | 1.013 | .273 | 63.49% |
Tyler has been crushing the ball so far this season and did the same last year against the 4-seam, curve, cutter mix. Personally I think Taillon is cooked this season and just hope it takes a while for the books to notice.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3), hit parlays … H+R+R probably juicy but who knows.
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Monday, March 31 …
✅ Kyle Schwarber: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, run … other Phillies not so much with Bohm and Harper going 1-4 and Realmuto 0-4.
✅ Tyler O’Neill: 4-4, double, RBI, 2 runs … Adley was 1-5 with an RBI and Laureano 0-2
✅ Kerry Carpenter: 2-5, double 2 RBI
❌ Juan Soto: 1-4, run
✅ Kyle Tucker: 4-7, HR, 3 RBI, 4 runs … bang!
❌ Yordan Alvarez: 0-4
❌ Corey Seager: 0-2, BB
✅ Brett Baty: 1-4, double
✅ Rob Refsnyder: 2-3, run
😒 Kyle Manzardo: DNS
✅ Luis Arraez: 1-5, single (which is all we needed)
All in all a green day!
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Landon Roupp [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
25-84 | .298 | .417 | 1.022 | .310 | 54.41% |
Yordan keeps popping up early in the season and here’s another day where he faces a guy who had issues with lefties in 2024. Worth noting Yordan hasn’t done squat this season and keeps hurting my feelings
TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.5u), HR (0.2u), hit parlays (maybe)
Jackson Merrill (SD) vs. Ben Lively [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
48-175 | .274 | .352 | .834 | .229 | 45.71% |
Lively had a bumpy first start and Merrill has started the season swinging the bat well. Numbers from last year are good but not great.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u-0.75u), HR (0.3u)
Byron Buxton (MIN) vs. Sean Burke [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
44-145 | .303 | .413 | .989 | .303 | 51.4% |
Buxton ain’t done much yet this season so I may or may not actually use this. Also keep an eye on the weather, which has been pretty cold this week in Chicago. Probably worth noting as well that White Sox pitchers have actually be solid so far this season. Treading lightly!
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5), HR (maybe … 0.2u)
Luis Arraez (SD) vs. Ben Lively [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73-212 | .344 | .346 | .799 | .071 | 21.6% |
This is just to consider for singles or a piece to a hit parlay.
TARGET MARKETS: singles (0.5u), hit parlay
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!