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July 3, 2025

Let's Get a Little Slap Happy

With that in mind I say “slap happy” today because we may be focused on markets like H+R+R and singles instead of TB and HR.

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OK … we’re back with a better looking list of options for today, though I will admit its filled with B+ range guys and a lot of the names on the list aren’t ones we are used to seeing. With that in mind I say “slap happy” today because we may be focused on markets like H+R+R and singles instead of TB and HR.

Let’s dive into the plays for Thursday, July 3rd. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

  • Kyle Stowers (MIA) vs. David Festa [GRADE: A-]

H/AB

AVG

wOBA

ISO

ExitVelo

HardHit%

12-38

.316

.378

.263

93.1

56%

When I’m leading the list with Kyle Stowers, now you see what I’m talking about. That said the numbers look good and David Festa is typically the opposite of good.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.7u), HR (0.2-0.3u)

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more

  • Jazz Chisholm (NYY) vs. Chris Bassitt [GRADE: B+/A-]

H/AB

AVG

wOBA

ISO

ExitVelo

HardHit%

8-21

.381

.500

.476

91.7

53.3

Bassitt has had issues with lefties this eason and Jazz has been hot. He’s also 3-9 off Bassitt in his career.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.7-1u), HR (0.2-0.3u)


OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

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