It's Raining Dongs
The internet says today is “National Reach as High as You Can Day,” so we’re gonna go ahead and take that as a sign for a home run parade of our Pitch Mix Picks.
Quick reminder: This email goes out every morning by 8a (eastern). If you don’t have it by then, something is going on with the service. If anything looks weird on your end, please email me directly at plundertheunder@gmail.com
The internet says today is “National Reach as High as You Can Day,” so we’re gonna go ahead and take that as a sign for a home run parade of our Pitch Mix Picks.
Starting today, I’m going to add a “PlunderSHOT of the Day” for one longer shot player that has shown up in the research but isn’t your chalky Ohtani/Judge type play. Obviously it’s more of a longshot to hit, but that’s the fun of it all, right? (This play will be in the premium section)
Let’s jump into the plays for Monday, April 14th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Mookie Betts and his buddies (LAD) vs. Antonio Senzatela [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-21 | .333 | .386 | .905 | .190 | 33.33% |
Power numbers aren’t ideal, but we go back to the same “small sample size” comment as we wade through April. Mookie is 9-20 (.450) with 2 HR off Senzatela in his career (isn’t everyone?). I think Freddie Freeman and Michael Conforto are in play as well with Senzatela being traditionally worse against lefties. Freddie doesn’t have great BvP numbers against Senzatela, but Conforto does.
TARGET MARKETS: Mookie … H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u for boosts), hit parlays. The others … more in the 0.5u and 0.2u ranges.
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.
Paul Goldschmidt (I think) / Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Seth Lugo [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-17 | .235 | .219 | .505 | .059 | 42.86% |
This is one of those “gotta take a little bit of a guess” situations because the above 2025 numbers for Goldie against the 4 seam/curve/cutter/sinker mix are not good, but he’s also destroying Lugo in his career, 7-11 (.636) 2 HR and swinging a hot bat this week. I’m going to lean more on the historical success and say this is worth a play. Aaron Judge is the exact opposite where the pitch mix numbers look great, but he’s also 0-11 against Lugo in his career. Still think he’s in play but not going to get overexposed to him either.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.75-1u), HR (0.25), hit parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Saturday, April 12 …
❓ Bryce Harper: 1-4, run … won’t give it a full check since we didn’t hit TB
✅ Vlad Guerrero: 2-4, double, RBI
Spencer Torkelson: 2-3, HR, 3 RBI, 2 runs
Brenton Doyle: DNP
Jose Altuve: 0-4 … suck pile
Griffin Conine: 2-4, 2 doubles, 2 RBI … a Pitch Mix banger!
Always love pulling deeper plays like Torkelson and Conine!
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Fernando Tatis (SD) vs. Jamison Taillon [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9-21 | .429 | .577 | 1.381 | .476 | 61.11% |
Taillon has not been good this season and Tatis was been very good against most everybody.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (up to 1u), HR (0.25-0.3), hit parlays
Ben Rice (NYY) vs. Seth Lugo [GRADE: A-/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-15 | .533 | .687 | 1.867 | .533 | 75% |
Don’t get too overexposed on the Yankees if you’re also playing Goldschmidt and Judge, but the numbers look very good.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75-1u), HR (0.25), hit parlays
Bobby Witt (KC) vs. Carlos Carrasco [GRADE: B/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
120-382 | .314 | .407 | .988 | .196 | 71.43% |
Had to pull 2024 numbers because the 2025 ones aren’t up to par yet, so take that into consideration. Carrasco has been hot garbage so far this season.
TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.5u-0.75u), HRR (probably o2.5 but I’d consider it for 0.5u or maybe an o1.5 parlay with somebody else), HR (0.2u)
Yandy Diaz / Jonathan Aranda (TB) vs. Tanner Houck [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
53-167 | .317 | .362 | .848 | .138 | 47.1% |
Yandy started the season slow, but has been heating up some the past couple days. Aranda has looked solid so far. Above numbers are Yandy’s from 2024.
TARGET MARKETS: Yandy … H+R+R/singles (0.5u). Aranda … H+R+R (0.5u), HR (0.2u)
💣💣 PlunderSHOT of the Day 💣💣
Gavin Sheets (SD) vs. Jamison Taillon [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-20 | .350 | .482 | 1.000 | .350 | 57.14% |
Has cooled off some since March but the numbers for good 2025 so far. Here’s to a longshot BOMB!!!!
TARGET MARKETS: TB/H+R+R (0.5u), HR (0.25)
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!