It's Opening Day in Plunderville!
Opening Day brings two free plays, premium picks, and a 15% discount that ends tonight!
Ahoy mateys … Opening Day is here!!!
Today we will offer two free “Plays of the Day” for all of our subscribers, as well as seven more premium plays that I 🩷LOVE🩷 (or at least “decently enjoy”).
Reminder, you can use code EARLY15 to get 15% off, but this discount expires at midnight TONIGHT! UPGRADE TO PREMIUM
Friendly reminder … successful sports betting is about LONG TERM success, so it requires patience and strategy. Plunder’s Pitch Mix Picks absolutely killed it in September and October last year, but we also had a lot of in-season data to work with.
April is a different beast … it takes some time to learn who’s good and who sucks, cold weather is a factor, and we need some games to see who’s swinging a good bat and who’s slumping.
My plan is to take things slowly, trust the process and hopefully throw a bunch of gold coins in the air because everything is so awesome.
Appreciate you taking this journey and please feel free to reach out if you have any questions, issues or suggestions at plundertheunder@gmail.com
LET’S GOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
[[[ADDED BONUS: Since Opening Day is a little different and many lines and promos come out early, I’ve included in the premium section some plays I’ve already taken. No guarantees the lines are still there, but giving you a peek behind the curtain to the process.]]
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Vlad Guerrero (TOR) vs. Zach Eflin [GRADE: A]
Eflin pitched well once he joined the O’s last season, but he’s also someone who’s K rate is below average (19.8% last year). He’s definitely someone you would classify as a “pitcher” more than a “thrower” who relies much more on a cutter, sinker, curve and sweeper.
In 243 ABs against the mix in 2024 we get …
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82-243 | .337 | .398 | .954 | .189 | 53.2% |
The average, wOBA, OPS and HardHit all fall into our top threshold. ISO is a little down, so that has us look for at things like H+R+R and singles/hits markets.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (1u), singles (1u), hits parlays
SECONDARY MARKETS TO CONSIDER: TB (0.5u), HR (0.2u)
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage. Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value.
Ketel Marte (ARI) vs. Justin Steele [GRADE: A]
Steele has already had one bumpy start in the Tokyo Series that we took advantage of, so we go back to that well again. Steele basically throws two pitches … 4-seam fastball and slider … and here’s how Marte did against lefties with that mix in 2024 …
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
43-101 | .426 | .518 | 1.238 | .337 | 58.3% |
All the bells and whistles are going off here (and would that make it a “Ketel Bell?” … ba-dum-tss!). Most markets are in play here based on value. For what it’s worth, Marte also batted .368 this spring.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (up to 1.25u based on juice), TB (1u), HR (0.3u), hits parlays
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the next seven PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
William Contreras (MIL) vs. Carlos Rodon [GRADE: A-]
This is the Brewers’ Contreras, not to be confused with his brother Willson from the Cardinals (who I always get his confused with). Rodon is a 4-seam, slider and changeup guy and he’s also on my fantasy baseball sh*t list so I’m always good to pick against him.
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
32-102 | .314 | .395 | .975 | .186 | 53.95% |
One thing that gives me pause here is a 5.56% Barrel rate, which if you need the nerd definition of the stat its “balls with the optimal combination of exit velocity and launch angle.” So it makes me look less at home runs and probably more of a focus on H+R+R or a hit parlay. Contreras also batted a really nice .444 this spring.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (up to 0.75), hits parlay
Lourdes Gurriel (ARI) vs. Justin Steele [GRADE: A-/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28-80 | .350 | .449 | 1.093 | 0.288 | 50% |
HardHit% is right on the elite threshold line so it’s not optimum. Barrel Rate is 10% so that’s good, but not great. He’s also batting .444 of Steele (4-9) and .325 this spring, so it’s definitely a good play.
TARGET MARKETS: TB (up to 0.75), H+R+R (up to 0.75), HR (0.3u)
ALREADY PLAYED: +750 for a HR at 0.3u (Fanduel current best odds)
Adley Rutschman (BAL) vs. Jose Berrios
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14-38 | .368 | .481 | 1.211 | .289 | 50% |
This one I imagine you will see floating around a lot today because he’s hitting .591 off Berrios is his career. I try not to get too caught up in BvP. It definitely helps as a deciding factor, but I do think the books use it to their advantage when they set the lines as well.
Another thing worth noting here is the above numbers are for the sinker and slurve, which are Berrios’ primary pitches. He also throws a 4-seamer, but only 10% of the time. That said, if I add 4-seamer into the equation it kicks Adley’s numbers down a fair amount, but at 10% usage I don’t think it’s as concerning. That said that’s why he’s a second tier option and not an elite option.
TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.5-0.75u), HR (0.2u)
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Logan Webb [Grade: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
37-127 | .291 | .397 | .965 | .276 | 41.3% |
Hard Hit and average isn’t exactly where we want it to be, but Elly is batting .409 this spring, the numbers are decent and he just has that “opening day moment” vibe that you’re looking for. Not going crazy here but happy to sprinkle.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5u), TB (0.5u), HR (0.2u)
ALREADY PLAYED: Draftkings No Sweat HR Bet Promo ($10 max for me) +650
Luke Raley (SEA) vs. Luis Severino [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
45-131 | .344 | .493 | 1.225 | .382 | 44% |
Similar to Elly. Decent numbers, decent spring (.302 avg), but Severino a bit of a wild card in a new home. I will say this … of his 45 hits against the mix, he had 13 HRs. That’s not insignificant at all. Rolling bases and HR here.
TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.5), HR (0.3u)
ALREADY PLAYED: Fanduel 25% HR boost/Daily Home Run Jackpot o.5u +450
Bobby Witt (KC) vs. Tanner Bibee [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
88-296 | .297 | .396 | .961 | .264 | 49.7% |
Bobby is a bit of a production machine. Hoping we can catch some favorable H+R+R markets here since it’s early. Or he may be juiced to hell.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (up to 0.75u if the odds don’t suck)
Cody Bellinger (NYY) vs. Freddy Peralta
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
59-227 | .262 | .365 | .849 | .218 | 36.96% |
Borderline play for me. Almost left it out, but the numbers are decent and the BvP is decent. Plus he’s batting .400 this spring and the weather is halfway decent in NYY in April for a lefty. I’ll play the bases and HR. Wouldn’t blame you if you faded.
TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.35u), HR (0.15u)
ALREADY PLAYED: MGM No Sweat Bet at +700 o0.5 HR ($10 max for me)
That’s all for today … let’s go get some GREEN!