In a Van Down By the River
I always figure betting on baseball is gonna either send me to a penthouse apartment filled with sexy hoochie mommas, or living out of a van down by the river like motivational speaker Matt Foley. No van yet so … so far so good!
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I always figure betting on baseball is gonna either send me to a penthouse apartment filled with sexy hoochie mommas, or living out of a van down by the river like motivational speaker Matt Foley. No van yet so … so far so good!
Let’s jump into the plays for Saturday, April 26th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
All Sorts of Phillies vs. Ben Brown [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6-19 | .316 | .447 | 1.105 | .316 | 70.59% |
Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto and Nick Castellanos all look to be in play against Mr. Brown, who is also “a little too close to Mr. Shit” as they say in “Reservoir Dogs.” Schwarbs is first choice, then JT, then Casty who has been a little cold. Listed numbers are for Schwarbs.
TARGET MARKETS: TB/HRR (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u with promos and boosts), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more
Ben Rice (NYY) vs. Kevin Gausman [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-21 | .333 | .449 | 1.143 | .238 | 56.25% |
Rice has quietly heated back up this week and has been smoking the ball the past week. Gausman has had issues with lefties so far this year too. NOTE: Possible weather issues in this game.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (up to 1u), HR (0.3u-0.5u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Thursday, April 24 …
✅ Bobby Witt: 1-4, run
✅ Maikel Garcia: 2-5, double, run
😒 William Contreras: DNP
😒 Jackson Chourio: DNP
❌ Nolan Schaunel: 0-3
❌ Dylan Crews: 0-3
Welp … the “Parade of weirdoes” delivered in the fact that they were all weird and dumb outside of the Royals.
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Oneil Cruz (PIT) vs. Roki Sasaki [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-21 | .333 | .593 | 1.573 | .762 | 80% |
I keep waiting for Sasaki to be the elite guy everyone has expected, but it hasn’t been happening. Meanwhile, Cruz is crushing the ball this season. 102.6 MPH exit velo to go with the above numbers. Insane power numbers here.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) vs. Merrill Kelly [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
17-49 | .347 | .473 | 1.259 | .245 | 54.55% |
Hosed us the other day, but facing Merrill Kelly usually cures most everything.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75-1u), HR (0.3u)
Fernando Tatis (SD) vs. Ryan Pepiot [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14-39 | .359 | .499 | 1.229 | .410 | 63.64% |
Tatis has been racking up som egaudy numbers of late.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75-1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) vs. Jonathan Cannon [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16-49 | .327 | .462 | 1.143 | .347 | 52.38% |
Tyler cooled off a little, then starting heating up again and has been solid the last couple games. Cannon sucks, so that of course helps.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u), HR (0.25u)
Steven Kwan / Kyle Manzardo (BOS) vs. Tanner Houck [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9-19 | .474 | .514 | 1.240 | .211 | 22.22% |
Next couple are retreads from yesterday’s Sox/Guardians game that got rained out. Houck has lots of trouble with lefties. Also gives up a lot of home runs, so I’ll even burn a couple bucks on a Kwan HR. Above numbers are for Kwan, but Manzardo’s are decent too.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75-1u), HR (0.2u Kwan … more like 0.3u for Manzardo)
Jarren Duran (BOS) vs. Ben Lively [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-24 | .333 | .427 | 1.023 | .250 | 52.38% |
Retread #2: Other side of the same game. These are numbers for the last 14 days for Duran against the 4 seam/change/curve/sweeper mix that Lively throws.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u), HR (0.25u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
💣💣 PlunderSHOT of the Day 💣💣
Jonah Heim / Wyatt Langford (TEX) vs. Robbie Ray [GRADE: B/B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-10 | .400 | .619 | 1.700 | .600 | 71.43% |
Both guys have pretty much identical numbers, but Heim has better hard hit numbers. Both guys are definitely in play.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5-0.75u), HR (0.25)
That’s all for this very odd looking day … Let’s go get some GREEN!