Giving you the HOOAH!
I gotta write like 175 on these emails this season, so we’re always gonna be looking for goofy headlines and ways to kick it off. Today is Al Pacino’s birthday.
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I gotta write like 175 on these emails this season, so we’re always gonna be looking for goofy headlines and ways to kick it off. Today is Al Pacino’s birthday. Now I already feel like I need to go watch “Heat” tonight. Or maybe I’ll throw on “Scent of a Woman” and yell “HOOAH!!!” every time one of our guys goes yard tonight. Here’s to a “HOAHH!!!” filled night!
Let’s jump into the plays for Friday, April 25th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Jose Berrios [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20-42 | .476 | .550 | 1.348 | .238 | 58.82% |
I’m sure you’ll see this play everywhere today since it’s Judge, he’s mashing the ball and has 5 career HRs off Berrios. The real issue is that the books will likely give us horrible odds as a reward for all of it so it might just be a parlay piece for other stuff.
TARGET MARKETS: TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u with promos and boosts), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) vs. Casey Mize [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-23 | .435 | .578 | 1.391 | .478 | 100% |
I can already hear subscriber Tdub1911 as he reads this, “Not Gunnar! He sucks every time we try to use him!!” And yet here we are. I’ll likely try to limit exposure, but how do you ignore a 100% Hard Hit rate? That’s like, a lot and stuff. And a 106 MPH exit velo too.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (up to 1u), HR (0.3u-0.5u), might keep him out of parlays so he doesn’t screw me multiple times
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Wednesday, April 23 …
✅ Aaron Judge: 2-4, triple, RBI, run … hit a ball that was a HR in 28 of 30 MLB parks too, just not the one he was in
❌ Marcel Ozuna: 1-3 … Braves suck
✅ Cedric Mullins: 2-5, run
❌ Gunnar Henderson: 1-5
✅ Oneil Cruz: 2-5, HR, RBI, run
❌ Gavin Sheets: 0-3
❌ Matt Olson: 1-4, run … like I said … Braves suck
✅ Jasson Dominquez: 2-4, run
❌ Spencer Torkelson: 0-3
✅ Tyler Soderstrom: 1-3, double, 2 runs
✅ Lawrence Butler: 1-5, HR, RBI, run
❌ Dylan Moore: 0-5, run … Dylan Moore sucks worse than Dylan Moore
Mixed bag of a day. I ended up even, but also started out terrible so I’ll take the later rebound.
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Jorge Polanco / Julio Rodriguez (SEA) vs. Cal Quantrill [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-29 | .345 | .445 | 1.047 | .345 | 46.15% |
I mean you always gotta play SOMEBODY against Cal Quantrill, right? Above numbers are for Polanco. Rodriguez’s numbers aren’t as good, but he’s finally been hitting the ball and is also 6-11 (.546) with 2 HR off Quantrill in his career. Both in play
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75-1u), HR (0.25u), hit parlays (Polanco)
Steven Kwan / Kyle Manzardo (BOS) vs. Tanner Houck [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9-19 | .474 | .514 | 1.240 | .211 | 22.22% |
Houck has lots of trouble with lefties. Also gives up a lot of home runs, so I’ll even burn a couple bucks on a Kwan HR. Above numbers are for Kwan, but Manzardo’s are decent too.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75-1u), HR (0.2u Kwan … more like 0.3u for Manzardo)
Jarren Duran (BOS) vs. Ben Lively [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-24 | .333 | .427 | 1.023 | .250 | 52.38% |
Other side of the same game. These are numbers for the last 14 days for Duran against the 4 seam/change/curve/sweeper mix that Lively throws.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u), HR (0.25u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Trent Grisham / Ben Rice (NYY) vs. Jose Berrios [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9-19 | .474 | .696 | 1.737 | .684 | 47.06% |
Both of these guys match up well if you’re looking to fade the public on Judge. Grisham doesn’t play every night so definitely check lineups, but his above numbers are really good.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.50-0.75u), HR (0.25u)
Miguel Andujar (ATH) vs. Sean Burke [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-29 | .379 | .382 | .897 | .034 | 42.31% |
Tyler Soderstrom shows up in the mix as well, but has been pretty cold this week, so we’re gonna give Andujar the nod today. Power numbers aren’t good, so we really want H+R+R
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (up to 0.75u), HR (0.2u)
💣💣 PlunderSHOT of the Day 💣💣
Jesse Winker (NYM) vs. Jake Irvin [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-12 | .333 | .535 | 1.333 | .583 | 75% |
Gotta make sure he’s playing, but Irvin has issues with lefties and Winker has been hitting the ball well of late. Above numbers are for the last 21 days.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u), HR (0.25)
That’s all for this very odd looking day … Let’s go get some GREEN!