Friday Night Lights
Clear eyes, full hearts … Can’t lose!
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Seriously … if you’ve never watched the “Friday Night Lights” TV show you need to do yourself the favor and do so. I mean I love my Dad and all, but if I was given the option to trade him for Coach Taylor as my Dad, I’d at least have to REALLY think about it. “Clear eyes, full hearts … can’t lose” might be one of the greatest coaching mantras of all time, so we gonna channel that tonight for some serious Friday night success!
Let’s jump into the plays for Friday, April 18th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Austin Riley / Ozzie Albies (ATL) vs. Chris Paddack [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-33 | .333 | .398 | .928 | .212 | 54.17% |
Paddack has been hot garbage this year and Riley and Albies are both swinging the bat well right now. Above numbers are for Riley and I give him a slight nod, but I like ‘em both.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u with promos and boosts), hit parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more
Josh Naylor / Corbin Carroll (ARI) vs. Colin Rea [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13-21 | .619 | .942 | 2.348 | 1.048 | 72.22% |
Warmer weather in Chicago today, wind blowing out and two hot hitters. Above insane numbers are for Carroll so he gets first nod, but both are great again. H+R+R might be in play for Naylor but Carroll will easily be for a parlay only.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.25-0.5u), hit parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Wednesday, April 16 …
❌ Yandy Diaz: 1-3
❌ Elly De La Cruz: 1-3
❌ Steven Kwan: 0-4
✅ Gavin Lux: 1-3, run
❌ James Wood: 1-4
❌ Brendan Donovan: 1-3
❌ Jarren Duran: 1-4
✅ Tyler Soderstrom: 1-4, run
❌ Lawrence Butler: 1-5
✅ Max Muncy: 2-3, 2 runs
Not a good night. Lots of close calls. On the bright side the next day has already been better as I write this up. So YAY!!!
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Pete Crow-Armstrong / Dansby Swanson vs. Corbin Burns [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-14 | .286 | .422 | 1.022 | .429 | 33.33% |
Burns is traditionally a great pitcher but he’s been scuffling so far this season and this is the other side of the “wind blowing out at Wrigley” game. Above numbers are for Crow-Armstrong, who has been swinging a hot bat. Swanson is tougher to gauger because he’s a fantastic 9-12 off Burns in his career, but also 2-26 this past week with 12 Ks. Pete is my main choice. Could sprinkle on Dansby but not a ton.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5-0.75u), HR (0.25u)
Oneil Cruz (PIT) vs. Luis L. Ortiz [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5-17 | .294 | .382 | .979 | .235 | 62.5% |
Cruz is back again after going yard yesterday, He still frustrates the hell out of me, but the numbers are there and he’s been decent this week and hitting the ball hard.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5-0.75u), HR (0.2u lotto)
Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Miles Mikolas [GRADE: B+/A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-31 | .355 | .540 | 1.452 | .452 | 58.33 |
Mikolas sucks. (Do I need to say more?)
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays
Trea Turner (PHI) vs. Sandy Alcantara [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-13 | .308 | .392 | 1.000 | .077 | 41.67% |
Turner is hitting .361 off Alcantara in his career as well. Power numbers are bad, so ideally I just want H+R+R and/or a hit parlay
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5u), hit parlay
💣💣 PlunderSHOT of the Day 💣💣
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX) vs. Chase Dollander [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6-16 | .375 | .461 | 1.125 | .250 | 53.55% |
He’s going yard. I’m calling it right now. Bet your kid’s college fund on it. (Don’t do that)
TARGET MARKETS: TB/H+R+R (0.5u-0.75u), HR (0.3u)
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!