DIY Dinger Tuesday
Big ol’ list today with the freebies getting 4 picks and another 11(!) for the premium subscribers.
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If you’ve been around the sports betting world for a while, you know that Fanduel’s current “Dinger Tuesdays” is a rotten piece of crap and they killed of what used to be a fairly awesome promotion in years past.
So with that in mind … we just gonna create our OWN Dinger Tuesday around here and hopefully crank out a ton of picks that go yard and pillage the books liberally on this fine day! Big ol’ list today with the freebies getting 4 picks and another 11(!) for the premium subscribers.
Let’s jump into the plays for Tuesday, April 22nd. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Every Diamondbacks Lefty vs. Zack Littell [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14-26 | .538 | .748 | 1.823 | .692 | 72.22% |
Above ridiculous numbers are for Corbin Carroll, but Josh Naylor and Pavin Smith have equally strong numbers. All three are hot this week as well and Zack Littell has been terrible against lefties this year. The only downside here is we gotta get action on all three so we don’t miss out!
TARGET MARKETS: I have no doubt Carrol’s H+R+R will be stupidly juiced, but it could get used in a parlay. Maybe we get lucky and the other two are in the -115 neighborhood and we can get 1u down. Total bases in play as well (up to 1u), HR (0.3-0.5u with promos and boosts), hit parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more
Austin Hays (CIN) vs. Edwin Cabrera [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7-9 | .778 | .972 | 2.444 | .778 | 66.67% |
Only 9 at bats, but those numbers are ridiculous. Been hot overall this week as well. Wondering if we can pull one over on the books and get a halfway decent H+R+R line (his was -110 on Monday).
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Sunday, April 20 …
✅ Kerry Carpenter: 3-4, RBI
❓ Alex Bregman: 1-4, run … kinda needed TB to hit here
✅ Elly De La Cruz: 1-4, HR, RBI, run
❌ Ryan O’Hearn: 0-4 … entire Orioles team was awful
✅ Nick Castellanos: 1-4, RBI, run … also kinda needed bases here but he did hit a H+R+R parlay for me so I’ll give it a green
✅ Steven Kwan: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, run
✅ Jackson Chourio: 2-5, RBI, run
❌ Kyle Farmer: 0-4
❌ Joey Bart: 1-3
A decent day, but needed a couple TB plays to drop or an extra HR to put it over the edge.
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Fernando Tatis (SD) vs. Jack Flaherty [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-30 | .367 | .517 | 1.300 | .433 | 53.85% |
Same writeup as yesterday … I don’t like to out TOO much stock in BvP, but it’s also hard to ignore that Tatis is 7-10 off Flaherty. Flaherty has been decent this season but I’m gonna lean on history.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u), hit parlays
Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) vs. Dean Kremer [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9-24 | .375 | .505 | 1.292 | .333 | 50% |
Kremer has trouble against lefties and Lowe happens to be one of those. James Wood was a fringe option as well, but he’s been colder this week than Lowe. BONUS BET: I’m looking to take Kremer under on his strikeout line as well if it’s 4.5 and not overly juiced. Washington has the lowest K rate in the league for the last 14 days against Kremer’s specific mix of pitches.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u-1u), HR (0.25-0.3u), hit parlays
Steven Kwan (CLE) and Xavier Edwards (MIA) vs. Will Warren & Nick Martinez [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-25 | .400 | .499 | 1.280 | .240 | 16.67% |
I’m lumping these two guys together because the numbers were similar and their player profile is as well … low power guys who hit the ball well and make things happen. Hell … Kwan hit a HR the last time he was in the list and I told you he would!!!
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R parlay with the two (the juice will be high on both). I’ll sprinkle on an unlikely Kwan HR again as well (0.2u)
Maikel Garcia (KC) vs. Ryan Feltner [GRADE: B+/B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-26 | .308 | .431 | 1.077 | .269 | 63.64% |
KC bats have been scuffling this week as a whole, but Garcia has been one of the lone bright spots.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5-0.75u), HR (0.25u)
George Springer (TOR) vs. Ronel Blanco [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6-19 | .316 | .422 | 1.029 | .263 | 80% |
Worth noting that Springer is only batting .231 this week, so if you’re afraid of too much volume today he’s a guy you could skip, but the numbers are there.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u), HR (0.2u)
Bo Bichette (TOR) vs. Ronel Blanco [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-38 | .316 | .358 | .832 | .132 | 65.52% |
Bichette’s overall numbers aren’t as good as Springer’s, but he’s been hotter this week. Don’t like the ISO number so I really want a reasonable H+R+R market or I’ll just skip it.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5u-0.75u), HR (0.2u)
Gavin Lux (CIN) vs. Edward Cabrera [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13-27 | .481 | .505 | 1.222 | .148 | 38.10% |
Power numbers aren’t great here, but Lux has been on FIRE this week so I’m hoping to grab a decent H+R+R line at least
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R (0.5u-0.75u), HR (0.2u)
Sal Frelick (MIL) vs. Jordan Hicks [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9-26 | .346 | .405 | 1.000 | .115 | 41.67% |
Similar low power profile to Kwan and Edwards, so really the similar setup is in play. Hicks struggles mightily with lefties as well. BONUS BET: Hicks under on his strikeouts is a solid option if the odds are good.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R and hit parlays most likely the options since the lines will be juiced. Maybe pair him with Lux if his lines are juiced as well?
💣💣 PlunderSHOT of the Day 💣💣
Brent Rooker / Shea Langeliers (ATH) vs. Patrick Corbin [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | OPS | ISO | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4-9 | .444 | .795 | 1.778 | .778 | 44.44% |
Taking Rooker against lefties worked very well for us last season, so we hope to tap that success again. Above numbers are for Rooker … Langeliers actually has slightly better numbers against the mix, but he’s also been cold this week. I will likely get some exposure to both.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u-0.75u), HR (0.2-0.3u)
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!