Can Manny Be the Man?
New day. New week. And a new opportunity to CASH! That’s the beauty of sports betting … every single day feels like that day you’re gonna win a billion dollars. So let’s get us a billy today!
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New day. New week. And a new opportunity to CASH! That’s the beauty of sports betting … every single day feels like that day you’re gonna win a billion dollars. So let’s get us a billy today!
Let’s jump into the plays for Monday, May 12th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Manny Machado (SD) vs. Yusei Kikuchi [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | ISO | ExitVelo | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8-24 | .333 | .396 | .292 | 97 | 70% |
Manny has crushed lefties his entire career, and now he gets one that is pitching horribly this year. Here’s hoping the Padres don’t have a post-Coors hangover.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u-0.5u for boosts and such), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more
Kerry Carpenter (DET) vs. Tanner Houck [GRADE: A]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | ISO | ExitVelo | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6-13 | .462 | .533 | .308 | 93.2 | 61.64 |
As a Red Sox fan I can confidently say one thing about Tanner Houck … dude just can’t seem to figure out lefties and loves giving up home runs to them as well. Carpenter also has an excellent 23.08% Barrel rate against the mix.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u-0.5u for boosts and such), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
💰 THE RECAP 💰
These are all of our picks from Saturday, May 10 …
❌ James Wood: 1-3
❌ Freddie Freeman: 0-4
✅ Fernando Tatis: 2-4, HR, 3 RBI, 3 runs
✅ Jackson Merrill: 4-6, 2 RBI, 2 runs
✅ Luis Arraez: 307, 3 RBI, 2 runs … I mean they scored 21 so pretty much everybody crushed it
✅ Jonathan Aranda: 1-4, run
❌ Ryan O’Hearn: 0-1, 2 walks
✅ Nolan Schaunel: 2-3, run
❌ Cal Raleigh: 0-3, run
Mixed day but definitely not a washout either, which I’ll take considering how crappy May started off.
OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Hey … look at you … you survived the paywall guillotine! Thanks for being awesome!
✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅
Corey Seager (TEX) vs. Chase Dollander [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | ISO | ExitVelo | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16-43 | .372 | .447 | .349 | 96.6 | 66.67% |
Seager has missed a couple games with a hammy so you’ll need to check lineups, but he’s solid against the mix (which is also being delivered by a super mediocre pitcher in Chase Dollander).
TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.75u-1u), HR (0.2u-0.3u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Jasson Dominguez / Aaron Judge vs. Luis Severino [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | ISO | Exit Velo | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-31 | .323 | .379 | .323 | 90.7 | 59.09% |
The Yankee duo making a second appearance in a row, this time against a pitcher who’s name sounds super dirty. I feel like we all used to hear rumors about a girl in college who “will give you the Emerson Hancock if you get her drunk enough.” Above numbers are for Dominguez, but as you already know, Judge’s numbers are great against everybody.
TARGET MARKETS: TB/HRR (0.75u-1u), HR (0.25), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays
Alex Bregman (BOS) vs. Jackson Jobe [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | ISO | Exit Velo | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13-46 | .283 | .389 | .370 | 92.8 | 45.95% |
Numbers are sort of on the fringe, but they’re decent enough to go along with Bregman’s .333 average this week and Jobe’s struggles so far this season.
TARGET MARKETS: TB/HRR (0.5-0.7u), HR (0.25)
💣💣 PlunderSHOT of the Day 💣💣
Ketel Marte (ARI) vs. Justin Verlander [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | ISO | ExitVelo | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63-215 | .293 | .346 | .256 | 92.7 | 50% |
I don’t have much 2025 data to go on since Marte has been hurt, so here’s his 2024 numbers. This one is also fringy, but Verlander has struggled mightily against lefties this season so we can dabble.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u), HR (0.2u)
That’s all for today … Let’s go get some GREEN!