Cal It a Light Day
Very small slate today with only three games, so I have some options for each for both hitter and pitcher props.
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Very small slate today with only three games, so I have some options for each for both hitter and pitcher props. No paywall today either since it’s such a small list.
Let’s dive into the plays for Thursday, July 31st. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.
✅ TOP PICKS ✅
Cal Raleigh / Randy Arozarena (SEA) vs. Kumar Rocker [GRADE: A-]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | ISO | ExitVelo | HardHit% |
6-17 | .353 | .508 | .529 | 93.6 | 60% |
Listed numbers are L14 for Raleigh, which are much better than L30. Arozarena’s numbers are strong as well. Both are definitely in play. I also want to see BB lines for both pitchers and would like Rocker o1.5 and Kirby u1.5 if lines are reasonable
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u)
Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more
Jonathan Aranda (TB) vs. Marcus Stroman [GRADE: B+]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | ISO | ExitVelo | HardHit% |
6-21 | .286 | .314 | .143 | 95 | 53.85% |
The L30 numbers here aren’t great, but the Barrel, Exit Velo and Hard Hit were good indicators of “unlucky” performance. L14 was also much stronger and Stroman has had tons of issues with lefties. Stroman’s lines for under K and over BB are in play as well, but I’d like the K line to be 4.5 and get the feeling it will be 3.5.
TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.7u), HR (0.2u)
Santiago Espinal and the Reds in general (CIN) vs. Carlos Carrasco [GRADE: B]
H/AB | AVG | wOBA | ISO | ExitVelo | HardHit% |
5-11 | .455 | .427 | .091 | 85 | 20% |
Not 100% confirmed, but it looks like the Braves are going to roll Carlos Carrasco off the scrap heap which is good for us and bad for Braves fans. For Espinal we only want singles/hits, but the Reds in theory as a whole should be good, so I’m going to be looking at Carrasco o2.5 ER, under K and over hits allowed.
TARGET MARKETS: singles/hit (0.5)
That’s all for now … Let’s go get some GREEN!