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July 4, 2025

Cal-ifornia Love

Happy Birthday ‘Murica!!!! 2Pac and Dre feel very patriotic to me, so let’s have ourselves a DAY!!!!

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Happy Birthday ‘Murica!!!! 2Pac and Dre feel very patriotic to me, so let’s have ourselves a DAY!!!!

Let’s dive into the plays for Friday, July 4th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

  • Cal Raleigh (SEA) vs. Bailey Falter [GRADE: A]

H/AB

AVG

wOBA

ISO

ExitVelo

HardHit%

12-19

.632

.837

.947!

98.6

63.64%

OK Cal … keep doing that HR thing. And today you get a crappy lefty to do it against! Numbers are very very good here.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u-0.5u)

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more

  • Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Marcus Stroman [GRADE: A]

H/AB

AVG

wOBA

ISO

ExitVelo

HardHit%

9-19

.474

.565

.526

94.6

57.89%

Once Cal gets us all hot and bothered, the Polar Bear can cool us down a tad (but then heat us right back UP with a dinger!!!).

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u-0.5u)


OK friends … this is the part of the email where we move on to the PREMIUM plays. So here comes THE DREADED PAYWALL!!!!! AHHHHH!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

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