PFP Lab Notes #5: three rules over +10 units. Not proof yet.
Three of our lab rules are over +10 units:
- N2 Tie-Mass Over (NHL): +16.6u
- S2 Pinnacle Steam (soccer): +12.9u
- B4 Early-Season Under (NBA): +11.9u
Sounds great. We still don't call it proof.
Why
Units swing a lot over a couple hundred picks. A rule can be +15 on luck alone. The real test is whether it beats the closing price, and by enough to cover what the book takes. None of these are there yet.
The one people asked about
N2 bets the over on every NHL game DraftKings has at 6.5. A game tied 3-3 after regulation gets settled by overtime or a shootout, so it counts as 7 goals and the over cashes. We don't know yet if books already price that in. It keeps racing in public.
Also new this week
- The Board now shows how picks did against Pinnacle's closing price too.
- Razore joined the board. When our reader missed his card, it counted from his first post anyway.
Casey
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