We just published something new for you.
Hi there,
Our latest analysis is live — and it’s one of the most urgent, high-stakes scenarios facing the Asia-Pacific region today.
What if China made the first move?
In How an Open Conflict between the US and China in the West Philippine Sea might Unfold, Senior Fellow Robert T. Wagner walks us through a sobering scenario where hostilities erupt not over years — but in a single, decisive strike.
From cyber attacks and naval engagements to Taiwan, nuclear deterrence, and refugee flows, this report breaks down:
The likely trigger event in Luzon and Taiwan
How the US and its allies would respond
Regional and global escalation pathways
Humanitarian fallout and economic collapse
Why diplomacy and deterrence remain the only path forward
⚠️ “China would suffer disproportionately, but the devastation would engulf us all.”
This is not a prediction. It’s a warning — and a call to understand the complex alliances and tensions shaping the region.
Thanks for subscribing to Philippine Strategies. Stay sharp, stay informed.
— The Philippine Strategies Team