Is the Podcast Market Collapsing?
How to think about ROI as a new podcaster.
The podcast search engine Listen Notes recently posted some statistics that set off alarm bells across the Podiverse.1 After a massive surge in 2020, the number of new podcasts launched in 2022 declined by a surprising 80 percent.
James Cridland at Podnews does a great job of contextualizing these numbers, pointing out how gaps in the aggregated data and changes elsewhere in the industry make the steep drop seem more “modest correction” than “plummeting off a cliff while engulfed in flames.”2
Joshua Benton at NiemanLab frames it as an inevitable development of the podcast market. He cites a less dramatic decline in the release of new episodes and a small but measurable drop in podcast consumption, to conclude that the gold-rush era of podcasting is ending. He sees podcasting developing into a more mature market, dominated by bigger, better-resourced players at the expense of small, independent shows. In particular, he sees the trends as bad news for shows that don’t intend to publish forever:
What the new-show decline suggests is that the market is favoring ongoing shows — and that the ROI on a limited-run podcast is getting lower.
I agree that these changes in the market will be more challenging for short-run shows and smaller producers. It’s already a heavy lift to build an audience; a marketplace dominated by shows that last longer and spend more on marketing can only make it more difficult. But I want to challenge the notion that audience size is the only - or even the best - way to measure the return on investing in a short-run podcast project.
As I’ve said before, podcasting is a medium where success can be defined in a number of ways. Many of my clients are small business owners and entrepreneurs who turn to podcasting as a form of content marketing. They take advantage of the flexibility and intimacy of podcasting to make connections in their industry, demonstrate their expertise to potential clients, and offer help to folks who might struggle to afford their services.
If you’re specifically looking to make a career in podcasting, there’s still utility to be had from developing a show that has a short arc. Creating a demo version of your concept is like having an extended pilot. The investment of time will be non-trivial, of course, but once it’s done the cost to store it is minimal. It’s available to share or excerpt when you’re pitching to potential funders or applying for a job performing one of the many roles you’ve filled on your own project.3
A massive drop in show launches makes a great headline, but in the broader context of a pandemic boom and industry consolidation, the trend seems more like a slowdown in expansion rather than a sudden collapse. There are still plenty of opportunities to reap rewards from podcasting, whether as a venue for marketing your business or as a career in itself.
If you’d like to create a demo series to share with potential clients or potential employers, you’re in luck. I’m working on a new offer that eliminates as much of the friction as possible from the process, leaving you free to create. Email me a ko@particulatemedia.com to learn more.
Rejected portmanteaus included Podisphere, Podigentsia, and Podgeist, any of which is now available for use as the title of a better newsletter.
See also: Kari Lake’s post-2022-election litigation strategy.
Writer, Host, Editron, Directrix, Producerator, etc.