There are lots of spurious existential risk claims which nerds like to make — paperclip-making AI, gamma ray bursts, extra-terrestrial invasion etc. Most of them, extremely unlikely events that have happened only a couple of times in all of the existence of the universe or planet Earth, or are entirely theoretical and are not really worth particularly worrying about in the way that nerd cults like to.

Unlike all of those sci-fi existential risks general to humans meanwhile, there is a clear and present existential risk to black people worth taking seriously because it has lots of historical precedents: the genocide of an undesirable population group.

The basis for a black genocide would very likely be the idea that black people as a group do not meet the minimum required level of intelligence to be productive members in a regular society and thus are not fit to continue to exist.

The evidence to point to is enormous — it is noticeable in the dysfunction that accompanies black people everywhere they are concentrated, whether in their sub-Saharan African homeland, in the US, or anywhere else.

The evidence also is in the IQ scores. It is well-accepted in academia that black people score lower than all other majority races on IQ tests, and that IQ is predictive of broad human behavior and thus general life outcomes.

Most people, black or not, do not think this genocide based on "dysfunction, as a result of poor intelligence" is remotely possible. But this is in much the same way that people are generally unprepared for everything else. The only people who are ever prepared for anything affecting an entire society are the exceptionally talented few who deplore their natural talents into the functioning of their society.

Human population growth was genuinely outgrowing food production and was a serious problem to worry about, but the people who undertook the Green Revolution are a tiny minority.

Ditto things like the eradication of various lethal diseases in the past century (smallpox, polio etc.). Or the elimination of lead from public life.

This is how everything works.

A small minority group of exceptional people realizes the need to hit a specific goal — and leads everyone towards it.

One problem with black people is that there is a global lack of an elite class that thinks correctly broadly about issues related to black people, who it is you would expect to be the group capable of understanding this and be working towards preventing it.

The black elite in politics and governance who should be at the forefront of this are a bunch of incompetent and irresponsible dimwits who are busy following the progressive liberal lead on everything while playing grievance politics, pawning the natural wealth of their African homeland for gaudy material things, climbing the wrong development ladder... and similar such things.

And the general black population, on whom the weight of situational awareness actually does not rest, but it is interesting to contrast their actions to what seems possibly in their future nonetheless, are busy doing things like: obnoxiously complaining about racism and making demands about 'representation' while living in foreign (Western) societies; fighting diasporic and gender wars; preening about having acquired citizenships of foreign (Western) societies; having the usual #BlackConversations... and similar such nonsense.

When people hear this sort of argument, they get bogged down in the details of why and how. Especially how.

The 'why' is clear enough. The black inability to be functional people.

And then comes the 'how'. How do you genocide a billion people? Would all nonblacks just be on board with this?

There are a million different ways this could happen.

A very reasonable example of how things may begin is European countries deciding to station a few men on some parts of the African continent to stem mass illegal migration. And over time, there come to be more and more reasons to station more and more men. And then maybe they take over some of the governments from the locals for one or two of several reasons.

Eventually, there is bound to be a slow descent into rationalizing the pointlessness of these people. Maybe not even as a malicious act. It could be thought of as an act of mercy. Or simply part of how things are supposed to be.

Think about how we currently interact with various kinds of living things including animals. We specifically raise lots of animals for different kinds of purposes not out of maliciousness or anything like that, but simply in line with how they serve our needs. We accept that this is simply how things are supposed to be.

Or maybe a great European leader or group rises who decides that since black people are too dysfunctional to govern themselves and thus make use of the enormous natural features of their homeland, why don't people who know what they are doing take over everything.

The only thing stopping any of these scenarios is the existing reigning ideology of progressive glorify-the-underdog liberalism which frowns upon these sorts of things. Not all of liberalism, mind. Liberalism was a thing in the past couple of centuries when European people instituted the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade and chattel slavery and European states justified setting out to brutally colonize the rest of the world.

There is a false idea in the minds of most people that society only ever moves in a liberal direction and things like this could never happen now. Not true at all. Ideologies rise and fall all of the time. We are only limited in our perspective by living memory.

Anyway, wondering about the details of how it happens is a big waste of time. There are a million different hows. Only two things matter:

(i) Conventional scientific evidence exists that says black people score lowly on IQ tests, and that IQ is predictive of the range of a person's behaviors and thus life outcome. The observable activity of black people does not contradict this. You can see black dysfunction basically everywhere.

(ii) Black people are completely defenceless and have no way to defend themselves against a people that may decide that there seems to be no point to their existence.