On the Margins — 2026-03-17
On the Margins
Your daily health economics & actuarial brief
Tuesday, March 17, 2026
What's happening today
| ■ | CMS says a centralized No Surprises Act IDR Gateway targets a second-half 2026 rollout. |
| ■ | Prime Healthcare and BCBS of Illinois face a June 1 deadline as contract talks threaten network disruption. |
| ■ | CMS selected 15 drugs for the 2028 Medicare Part D negotiation cycle, including the program's first Part B drugs. |
| ■ | H.R. 5343 would revive a four-year Medicare coverage window for breakthrough devices. |
| ■ | ONC is teeing up health IT decertification for information blocking cases. |
Key Stories
CMS targets 2H 2026 rollout of centralized No Surprises IDR Gateway
CMS told stakeholders in a March 16 email it will shift the Federal independent dispute resolution process to a new IDR Gateway in the second half of 2026. The agency plans to replace single-use web forms with a secure, centralized platform to initiate disputes, follow up, and track status. This is operational plumbing for No Surprises Act arbitration, where dispute inventory and cycle time affect payment timing. Expect workflow updates and possible changes in open IDR volume that can move payables and reserves.
Prime Healthcare and BCBSIL play chicken ahead of June 1 network deadline
Prime Healthcare and Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Illinois are facing a June 1 deadline to finalize a new network contract, Fierce Healthcare reported. Prime, new to Illinois, told patients it is working to avoid its hospitals and physicians being dropped from network. If talks fail, Prime risks an immediate volume hit while BCBSIL leans on steerage and disruption to reset unit costs. Actuaries should scenario OON leakage, continuity-of-care exceptions, and member abrasion through summer renewals.
CMS names 15 drugs for 2028 Part D negotiations, adds Part B
CMS on Jan. 27, 2026 selected 15 Part D and Part B drugs for the third IRA negotiation cycle, with prices effective Jan. 1, 2028. CMS said the drugs totaled about $27B in Part B and D spending from Nov 2024-Oct 2025, used by roughly 1.8M beneficiaries. Negotiated prices for the first 10 Part D drugs took effect Jan. 1, 2026, and the next 15 Part D drugs are slated for 2027. For PDP and MA-PD actuaries, the 2028 list is a rebate-reset: lower net costs should flow into bids, but utilization can eat savings.
H.R. 5343 revives 4-year Medicare coverage window for breakthrough devices
A March 16, 2026 STAT op-ed is lobbying Congress to move H.R. 5343, a Medicare breakthrough-device coverage bill advanced in committee 37-3. H.R. 5343 would cover CMS-designated "breakthrough devices" for a 4-year transitional period, unless CMS cites undue risk or use outside FDA-approved labeling. It also requires CMS to finish a national coverage determination before the 4-year window ends, and funds implementation at $10M per year in FY2025-2030. Economically, this shifts Medicare spend forward, and leaves MA and providers less room to slow-walk adoption while evidence and pricing catch up.
ONC tees up health IT decertification for information blocking cases
On March 12, 2026, ASTP/ONC said it is issuing notices of nonconformity to certified health IT developers accused of information blocking. If violations are sustained and corrective plans ignored, ONC can pull certification, and CMS would withhold incentive payments tied to certified tech use. Keane told HIMSS26 attendees this is the first enforcement step in nearly a decade since Congress banned information blocking. HHS OIG can also assess civil monetary penalties up to $1 million per violation, so interoperability disputes become a real reserve and vendor-risk line item.
Significant Digit
CMS says Medicare Advantage improper payments hit $23.67B in FY 2025, mostly because documentation did not support diagnoses used for payment.
CMS estimates Medicare Part C (Medicare Advantage) had a 6.09% improper payment rate in FY 2025, or $23.67B. CMS notes most Part C improper payments were tied to supporting documentation that failed to substantiate diagnosis data submitted for payment--which is risk adjustment revenue volatility, not just a compliance footnote. If you are pricing MA, this is your reminder that coding yield comes with audit yield, and both need to be in the forecast.
Other Relevant Headlines
Policy & Regulation
| KFF poll: Drug-cost anxiety hits new high, bipartisan call for price regulation | KFF |
| Stryker says pro-Iran-linked cyberattack wiped data across enterprise systems | Fierce Healthcare |
| Reckoning With State and Federal Cuts, Los Angeles Safety-Net Clinics Push for a New Tax | KFF Health News |
| Kansas bill works to expand CHIP eligibility | Becker's Payer |
| CMS opens grant applications for MAHA ELEVATE lifestyle medicine model | Fierce Healthcare |
| CMS' New Approach to Federal Medicaid Spending in Cases of Potential Fraud | KFF |
| Employer Groups Applaud Bill that Aims to Spur Competition in Healthcare | MedCity News |
Payer Operations
| Indiana to move long-term nursing home residents out of Medicaid managed care | Becker's Payer |
| Dark Money Group Angles for Higher Medicare Advantage Payments | KFF Health News |
| UnitedHealthcare expands doula benefit to employers nationwide | Fierce Healthcare |
Provider Economics
| Tenet Healthcare is securing healthy commercial rates through 2027 | Fierce Healthcare |
Pharmacy & Drug Pricing
| Hospitals increased oncology biosimilars use and secured greater margins along the way | Fierce Healthcare |
ICYMI (Recent Key Stories)
- MedPAC pegs Medicare Advantage overpayments at $76B, turning up heat -- MedPAC estimated Medicare Advantage overpayments at $76B and urged tighter payment oversight. (2026-03-16)
- Montana sets July 1 Medicaid work requirements as 2027 mandate nears -- Montana set a July 1 start date for Medicaid work requirements ahead of a broader 2027 mandate. (2026-03-13)
- Walz floats Minnesota Medicaid ASO plan to phase out eight MCOs -- Minnesota's governor proposed shifting Medicaid to an ASO model that would replace eight managed care plans. (2026-03-12)
- Idaho H 850 targets 2028 Medicaid expansion repeal, enrollment near 80,000 -- An Idaho bill would repeal Medicaid expansion in 2028 as enrollment approaches about 80,000 people. (2026-03-11)
- CMS launches BALANCE: voluntary GLP-1 price talks for Part D and Medicaid -- CMS introduced BALANCE, a voluntary program to negotiate GLP-1 drug prices for Part D and Medicaid. (2026-03-10)