On the Margins — 2026-03-13
On the Margins
Your daily health economics & actuarial brief
Friday, March 13, 2026
What's happening today
| ■ | Montana will start Medicaid work requirements July 1 as states prepare for the 2027 federal mandate. |
| ■ | CMS proposed QPP claim adjustments; providers criticize the new Ambulatory Specialty Model and its participation rules. |
| ■ | Carrum and Virta launched an obesity bundle pairing GLP-1 support with bariatric surgery navigation and referral pathways. |
| ■ | New Jersey governor proposed fines for employers with 50+ workers on Medicaid, pushing more coverage responsibility to firms. |
| ■ | FDA issued 30 warning letters over compounded GLP-1 marketing; STAT reported many brands use shared prescriber networks. |
Key Stories
Montana sets July 1 Medicaid work requirements as 2027 mandate nears
Montana plans to launch Medicaid work requirements July 1, per a state DPHHS presentation to a legislative interim committee on March 9. Becker's reported Florida is moving toward adding similar requirements as H.R. 1 pushes expansion states to require work, volunteering, or education. KFF also launched a state-by-state tracker for the 2025 reconciliation law, with required implementation starting in January 2027. Expect more eligibility churn and compliance overhead, shifting Medicaid MCO membership and capitation cash flow, and leaving safety-net providers holding the bag.
CMS tees up QPP claim adjustments as Ambulatory Specialty Model draws heat
In its March 12, 2026 MLN Connects newsletter, CMS flagged Quality Payment Program claim adjustments to correct the Medicare conversion factor. Modern Healthcare reports CMS' Medicare Ambulatory Specialty Model is already sparking provider concerns about payment levels. Read together, CMS is tweaking fee schedule plumbing while pushing specialty-focused alternative payment models. Actuarial and provider finance teams should reforecast 2026 Medicare revenue, as retro claim adjustments and model-specific rates move unit price and performance risk.
Carrum-Virta bundle ties GLP-1 coaching to bariatric surgery routing
Carrum Health partnered with Virta Health to offer a comprehensive weight-loss solution, linking medication-based care with surgical options. Virta provides nutrition coaching and GLP-1 medications, while Carrum provides surgeries for weight management. The companies said members can be referred and coordinated between the two programs based on clinical need. For payers and employers, tighter routing can shift obesity spend between ongoing GLP-1 pharmacy costs and episodic surgical bundles.
New Jersey targets employers with 50+ Medicaid workers for fines
New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill said March 10 in her 2027 budget address she wants to fine employers whose workers rely on Medicaid. Employers with at least 50 workers on Medicaid would have to offer coverage or pay the penalty, according to Becker's Payer. Sherrill projected the fines would raise about $145 million a year to offset Medicaid strains she blamed on President Donald Trump's policies. If adopted, it effectively prices "Medicaid dumping" and pushes more benefit cost back onto employers, changing stop-loss and wage assumptions for affected industries.
FDA warns 30 telehealth marketers as GLP-1 prescriber networks surface
On March 3, 2026, FDA issued 30 warning letters to telehealth firms over false or misleading marketing of compounded GLP-1 drugs. STAT reported March 12 that many telehealth brands rely on the same prescriber networks; 30% of 70+ warned firms tie to four medical groups. FDA flagged claims implying compounded products are the same as approved semaglutide or tirzepatide, plus branding that obscures the actual compounder. For payers, a crackdown on compounding shifts utilization to covered brands or abandonment, pushing GLP-1 PMPM and PA workload back into the plan.
Significant Digit
Risk adjustment is supposed to pay for sickness, not documentation yield, and MedPAC says the yield has been worth a quarter-trillion dollars.
MedPAC estimates Medicare Advantage coding intensity generated $224B in higher aggregate payments to plans from 2007-2025 (with 2024-2025 projected). Even after CMS's 5.9% coding intensity adjustment, MedPAC projects a net 10% risk score lift in 2025 due to coding, which effectively funds extra benefits and tougher pricing leverage. If you are modeling MA revenue, treat coding policy like a rate lever, not an ops footnote.
Other Relevant Headlines
Policy & Regulation
| JEC targets MA overpayments, arguing they inflate Part B premiums | Healthcare Dive |
| Medicare Advantage 'dark money' group seeks higher payments for insurers | KFF Health News |
| CVS to pay $118M to settle Medicare Advantage fraud allegations | Healthcare Dive |
| Illinois bill targets AI-driven downcoding | Becker's Payer |
| Georgia lawmakers move to limit AI's role in health insurance denials | Becker's Payer |
Payer Operations
| Families face five-figure bills as promised prior authorization reforms stall | KFF Health News |
Pharmacy & Drug Pricing
| KFF: Recent trends in Medicaid outpatient prescription drugs and spending | KFF |
| Trump administration to launch tariff probe into foreign drug pricing policies | Inside Health Policy |
Digital Health & AI
| HIMSS26: HHS officials update interoperability efforts and information blocking enforcement | Fierce Healthcare |
| HIMSS26: Epic expands AI roadmap and previews Factory for building AI agents | Fierce Healthcare |
| Microsoft launches dedicated health AI chatbot | Healthcare Dive |
Provider Economics
| How rural hospital networks are cutting costs and boosting care | Modern Healthcare |
ICYMI (Recent Key Stories)
- Walz floats Minnesota Medicaid ASO plan to phase out eight MCOs -- Minnesota's governor proposed moving Medicaid to an ASO model that would replace the state's eight managed care plans. (2026-03-12)
- Idaho H 850 targets 2028 Medicaid expansion repeal, enrollment near 80,000 -- An Idaho bill would set a 2028 repeal of Medicaid expansion as enrollment approaches about 80,000 people. (2026-03-11)
- CMS launches BALANCE: voluntary GLP-1 price talks for Part D and Medicaid -- CMS introduced BALANCE, a voluntary program to negotiate GLP-1 drug pricing for Medicare Part D and Medicaid. (2026-03-10)
- Florida pushes Medicaid work requirements despite not expanding Medicaid -- Florida officials are pursuing Medicaid work requirements even though the state has not adopted Medicaid expansion. (2026-03-09)
- Clover says it is first payer live on CMS-aligned network -- Clover Health said it is the first insurer operating on a network aligned with CMS standards. (2026-03-06)