It must be nice to afford to be able to be wrong. That's one thing that comes to mind when watching people build a small following through betting on sports and talking about it online. In the same way that the house will always have a mathematical edge on you if you're playing something like blackjack (I’ve read in a few places that the average odds for personal success going up against the house are something like 40%), the people who are making enough money to make serious money gambling on sports and talk about it afterwards have that persistent edge that often isn't discussed — they can afford to lose.

I tried listening to a podcast called Locked On Sports Betting a few times (I won’t link to it here), but I quickly had to get up because it was eminently clear that the people talking there didn't know what they were talking about. (One person on the podcast near the beginning of the current NBA season could only see the Brooklyn Nets in terms of pedigree as opposed to what Golden State was already clearly showing numbers-wise with regards to their defense.)

All of this is something of a prologue so I can talk through four prop bets I saw it come across my timeline earlier today.