2025 NBA Playoffs: A Look At The Celtics, Possible First-Round Match-Ups, and Milk
The Boston Celtics seek to go back-to-back as NBA Champions. As of April 3rd, 2025, their most likely opponents in the first round of the playoffs are the Orlando Magic, the Atlanta Hawks, or the Chicago Bulls.
Here’s what the data and modeling suggests for these three match-ups:
Orlando Magic:
With Jalen Suggs out for the season, Orlando’s perimeter is open. Before his injury, Suggs ranked in the 100th percentile for steal rate, 78th percentile for block rate among guards, and 89th in percentile playoff contest rate. That means Franz Wagner will probably be the primary point of attack defender — except he’s out for the season as well, which leaves — who? — Gary Harris? With Suggs, the Magic have a defensive rating of 108. Without Suggs, the Magic have a defensive rating of 112.3. That opens up space to consider Tatum scoring more (78-81% likely to get at least 27), White/Holiday getting more assists (70% likely to get around 4.5 assists), and Hauser to let it rain from three (72% likely to hit at least three 3’s, with Orlando minus Suggs being one of the worst teams to defend the corner three as well.)
Now, how on earth am I getting these percentages?
Here’s the rough math I’m using:
(1) Past prop performance against similar matchups.
(2) On/off court metrics + injury adjustments.
(3) How often a player is expected to touch the ball — and what kind of shots they’ll take — given the matchup, pace, and coaching tendencies.
(4) A volatility score (how often do players go above or below their average + how match-up dependent are they? + their role (bench player shooting volume is different than rotation)) plus my confidence in that (i.e., have they done this in the past?)
If you’re still with me, here’s a bit of a reward: gaming out what might happen if the arena was flooded with milk.
Milk depth: 4 feet. (Chest height.)
Viscosity: Approximately 1.7 cP
Movement speed: reduced 65-75%
Jumping: pretty much a non-factor.
Dribbling: you either try and temporarily take the ball with you underwater in an effort to have it hit the floor or teams will be playing a kind of Swim Rugby.
Shooting range: maybe 10 feet?
Who might benefit: Porzingis, Jrue Holiday (I feel like you can always trust someone like Holiday to find a way), Wendell Carter, Paolo.
Atlanta Hawks:
It’s hard to know where to begin with this match-up: the Celts shoot 10 more threes per game than Atlanta — and make them at a higher rate. Atlanta doesn’t really have someone to initiate the offense outside of Trae. If I were a betting man, I’d either be looking at Tatum points or White (or Holiday) to get some steals/turnovers. (With Atlanta having a heliocentric offense, it’s arguably easier for White/Holiday to disrupt point of attack.)
Chicago Bulls:
Another team, another similar statistical portrait. We turn our attention to an imaginary arena flooded with milk and try our hand at fluid dynamics. Who would be most impacted by a drag ratio? How long until the milk started to smell? Is anything of this worth anything?
If I had one dollar, I’d put it on Derrick White to get at least one steal — maybe combine it with a bet for Celtics to win a game.